[Rhodes22-list] Politics -- Terrorism Betting Parlor

[Michael Meltzer]

it game theory at it best, think of it more as the collective wisdom of the masses.

MJM
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Bill Effros" <bill at effros.com>
To: ""R-22"" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
Sent: Tuesday, July 29, 2003 9:07 AM
Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Politics -- Terrorism Betting Parlor


It seems this is not a hoax.

It seems this is financed by our government.

The idea seems to be that we can improve our intelligence by monitoring how people will bet on actual events they think may happen.

It works like the game of "Clue".  If you think Osama will strike in Pakistan with a truck bomb, you bet on scenario A.  If you
think Saddam will strike in Iraq using a rocket propelled grenade, you bet on scenario B.  And so on.

The bets initially cost a nickel, but if other players agree the outcome is likely, they can bid up the price of a scenario.  If the
event happens, the holder of the scenario gets a dollar.  The defense department will be watching to see where people put their
money.

Players remain anonymous.  Terrorists are encouraged to play.  It is hoped they will bet on things they know will happen and tip us
off.  (It is also hoped they will not bet against things they know will happen to throw us off.)

Take a look.

http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/

Bill Effros
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