[Rhodes22-list] Alternative Energy

[brad haslett]

Hank,

The diesel wouldn't necessairly respond directly in
real time to the drive train demand.  It could run at
a constant speed to charge the drive batteries and
spool-up only when a heavy current demand was
required, ie., during acceleration.  WW2 submarines
were diesel/electric hybrids.  So are locomotives and
cruise ships. FedEx teamed with Eaton to build diesel
hybrid delivery trucks.  I haven't read the test
results yet.  My personal plan is to drive our current
crop of cars/trucks until the wheels fall off and
hopefully by then, some 50+ mpg stuff will be
available.  Now, our new dump truck with its 450 hp
Mercedes diesel engine, that's another story.  $300
per fill-up. Ouch!

Brad

--- Hank <hnw555 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Brad,
> 
> I've always understood that diesels didn't like to
> be stopped and started so
> much.  do you think a diesel would work well in a
> hybrid where it could be
> constantly started and stopped?
> 
> Hank
> 
> 
> On 5/17/06, brad haslett <flybrad at yahoo.com> wrote:
> >
> > For those of you interested in alternative energy,
> > here is a link to a site I get regular e-mail
> updates
> > from:
> >
> >
>
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/assets/newsletter/
> >
> > Read the article on European bio-diesel
> production.
> > ADM's stock price has recently run-up on the
> ethanol
> > shortage.  I still think corn based ethanol is a
> loser
> > but sugar based ethanol is another matter (read
> the
> > article on Brazil). ADM is also big in biodiesel
> in
> > Europe. In 1979 when oil got to $80+ per barrel in
> > today's dollars, I bought a VW diesel Rabbit that
> got
> > 50 mpg.  Couple that with an electric hybrid drive
> and
> > you could get 90 mpg.  This is off the shelf
> > technology.  When oil gets to $100 per barrel (it
> > will), the technology will come off the shelf.
> Below
> > is an excerpt from a paper I wrote two years ago
> (oil
> > was at $55).  I'm not precient, a seventh grader
> could
> > have guessed where oil markets are heading.  There
> are
> > only two things one needs to know about worldwide
> oil
> > demand - China and India.
> >
> > Brad
> >
> > .....    The latest run-up in crude oil prices was
> not
> > as lucrative for some mid-level producers as one
> would
> > think because many companies hedged their
> production
> > at price levels far below the eventual high mark
> of
> > $55 per barrel. This should encourage airlines in
> the
> > short run because oil producers do not think the
> > current prices will remain at their present level.
> > The longer-term forcast is not as comforting. Oil
> > price forcasting is a tricky and often an elusive
> > pursuit, however, observing how oil companies have
> > responded to the most recent upturn in prices
> should
> > give airline managers some insight to how the
> > suppliers of the second most expensive input to
> > airline operations think the market will behave.
> > While oil companies are currently enjoying
> substantial
> > profits from the rise in crude oil prices, few
> have
> > stepped up discovery budgets far beyond what was
> > previously budgeted.  This would indicate that
> they
> > think the current situation is temporary and
> prices
> > will return to "normal" in the near future. The
> bulk
> > of both large and small production companies have
> used
> > the excess cash from earnings associated with high
> oil
> > prices to pay down debt, buy back stock, and
> reward
> > shareholders with increased dividends rather than
> step
> > up exploration.  While this should encourage
> airline
> > managers that fuel prices are falling, the longer-
> > term outlook in the oil industry should be cause
> for
> > alarm.
> >
> > The concept of  "peak oil", that is the eventual
> high
> > point of worldwide oil production, has been
> discussed
> > since Colonial Drake's first oil well.  A Shell
> Oil
> > geologist and later professor emeritis of geology
> at
> > Princeton University, L. King Hubbert, wrote a
> > scientific paper in 1956 which was derided by his
> > employer and peers and became known as "Hubberts
> > Peak".  Hubbert theorized that oil production lags
> oil
> > discovery by roughly forty years.  Since discovery
> > peaked in the US in the thirties, he predicted
> that
> > production would peak in the early 1970's. US
> domestic
> > oil production did in fact peak in 1970.  His
> later
> > prediction was that since world oil discovery
> peaked
> > in the sixties, world oil production would peak
> > shortly after the turn of the century.  While it
> is
> > still too early to tell with certainty, there is
> much
> > evidence to indicate that his second prediction is
> > eerily accurate as well.  As production peaks,
> crude
> > oil prices will rise with a constant demand.  With
> the
> > rapid modernization of China, and to a lesser
> degree
> > India, world oil demand is rising rapidly at the
> same
> > time production capacity is falling.  The history
> of
> > oil prices has been one of a fairly stable trend
> line
> > with wild but short lived swings away from the
> mean.
> > If Hubbert's Peak prediction holds true, we may
> see a
> > shift away from the fundamental futures forcasting
> > models and a substantial rise in the baseline
> price
> > range for crude oil.  This should give pause to
> > airline executives and further encourage them to
> adopt
> > hedging operations to smooth fuel cost
> fluctuations
> > and earnings swings.  A majority of oil industry
> > analysts believe that there is a fundamental
> paradigm
> > shift in oil price trends.  Where in the past,
> > volatility was due primarily to geo-politics;
> future
> > price swings will be more a function of geology. 
> This
> > new paradigm can be seen by looking at the reserve
> > life index (RLI) of global oil reserves, a
> > simple-to-calculate metric: total reserves divided
> by
> > total production.  Simply put, the higher the RLI,
> the
> > greater the oil market's long-term growth
> potential.
> > The current situation does not look encouraging. 
> In
> > the past 30 years, RLI has dropped from 119 years
> in
> > 1970 to 47 years in 2004.  This trend is not
> reversing
> > but in fact seems to be accelerating with some
> > estimates that RLI will only be 20 years by 2020.
> > This has a very ominous meaning for airline
> > executives.  Where in the past oil prices have
> been
> > determined by short-term political and economic
> > factors, future prices will be a result of market
> > recognition of the structural imbalance between
> demand
> > and supply.  Detractors from this theory will
> point to
> > "un-discovered" oil fields as the weakness in the
> > Hubbert's Peak argument but the oil industry's
> > reluctance to substantially increase discovery
> efforts
> > during a period of high oil prices should give
> little
> > comfort.  Most of the large and medium sized oil
> > companies have chosen growth through merger and
> > acquisition rather than the drill bit.
> >
> > The rising world demand for crude oil with a flat
> or
> > declining supply of the raw product will have
> serious
> > impacts across a broad spectrum of industries but
> > perhaps none more so than airlines.  While many
> > industries can switch to other sources of energy
> and
> 
=== message truncated ===


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