[Rhodes22-list] Dow Jones.....I hate to say it.....

[Brad Haslett]

Hank,

There was a time thirty years ago when I was studying Fed Funds that I could
have confidently answered that question.  It would just as likely have been
wrong but I would have "known" the answer.  Now, my eyes glaze over just
thinking about it.

If you read the "experts" at bankrate.com the consensus is "we don't know".
I'm betting that interest rates rise to their historical norm in the next
year.  We've enjoyed cheap interest rates for a good long while now.  This
"meltdown" in the mortgage sector was predictable and necessary.  As Rik
pointed out, sometimes things look stupid because they, well, are stupid.

I'm walking out the door on vacation to go ride a real roller-coaster.
Someone else is going to have to worry about the market.

Brad

On 8/10/07, Hank <hnw555 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Brad, et al,
>
> What will this do to interest rates?  Are they likely to go up or down or
> remain the same?  That is something I have never understood is why they
> change the rate.
>
> Hank
>
>
> On 8/10/07, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Dave,
> >
> > Let's hope I'm right and you're wrong.  It smells like a necessary
> > correction and a mild "bank run" to me.  I'm at least ten years away
> from
> > needing to cash-in any chips so I'm along for the ride.  What a good one
> > the
> > last six months have been, I "made" more money in my 401K than my day
> job
> > pays.  I knew that wouldn't last.
> >
> > Other than the Fed stepping in to prevent a liquidity crisis, I hope the
> > government does nothing.  My personal solution is to drive to Branson,
> MO
> > today for a mini-vacation before Cora starts school.
> >
> > Watch the market for me today and cry for us all  if it gets any more
> > nasty.
> >
> > Brad
> >
> >
> >
> > On 8/10/07, DCLewis1 at aol.com <DCLewis1 at aol.com> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > Brad,
> > >
> > > Your point about the business cycle is well made - but the issue is
> > what's
> > > bringing it down.  Is it "the usual stuff", or is it something
> > > truly  sinister?
> > >
> > > Two ponderous and conservative governmental institutions, the ECB and
> > the
> > > Fed, that like to move slowly and with incremental steps, moved
> quickly
> > > to  make
> > > available up to 95 Billion Euros(ECB) and 24 Billion USD - done
> > within  a
> > > space of less than 8 hours(maybe less than 4 hrs, I didn't time out
> when
> > I
> > > learned about each move).  That's a lot of money and they skipped a
> lot
> > of
> > > staffing to move that quickly - It tells me there's a big  urgent
> > problem.
> > >
> > > We know a variety of US, UK, and Australian hedge funds
> > have  folded.  We
> > > know many mortgage companies have folded - not in trouble  and hence
> had
> > > to cut
> > > back - simply put out of business.  We know of 1 US  investment bank
> > > that's
> > > taken a big hit.  We know of at least 1 German bank  in
> > > receivership.  Today we
> > > learned the second largest bank in France is  stressed.  This is not
> > > normal.
> > > As I recall, most business cycles end  because of inventory imbalances
> -
> > > this
> > > is nothing like that, this is a financial  melt down.
> > >
> > > Welcome back!
> > >
> > > Dave
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ************************************** Get a sneak peek of the all-new
> > AOL
> > > at
> > > http://discover.aol.com/memed/aolcom30tour
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