[Rhodes22-list] Opinion on the Pickens Plan - non sailing, non political, educational

Brad Haslett flybrad at gmail.com
Wed Aug 13 11:58:33 EDT 2008


Ed,

Just some 'quick and dirty' thoughts on your observers observations;

1 - Wind is a go with or without Pickens.  We had a fella running a dozer
for us this Spring, a civil engineer between jobs, who just took a job as
project manager for a company installing wind generators.  He explained the
current economics and convinced me wind is a long term player in the market.

2 - I think he's wrong about the car fleet as to natural gas efficiency.  It
is a very efficient fuel for ICE (internal combustion engines), that's why
they use it for electrical peaking plants (turbine ICE engines).  The
problem for transportation is it is cumbersome to store and somewhat
dangerous to refuel (at least for the average yahoo driver). Driving
electric plug-in cars is not efficient using our current grid sources.
We're just trading one source of carbon, oil, for another more inefficient
form of carbon, coal (60% of our current electricity).  That could change
with nukes & wind but you still have the issue of lead, as in lead acid
batteries.  We'll see, I'm a skeptic for the time being on electric cars.

3 - The growth of peaking plants using natural gas (a bone the Clinton
administration threw to the enviro complainers) is largely responsible for
the increase in natural gas prices.  Natural Gas follows Hubbert's Peak
decline curve same as oil.  I think we should replace home heating oil with
NG, not produce electricity with the stuff.

4 - Solar is perhaps is the best of all technologies once the price comes
down but then you still have the storage problem (and the same environmental
issues associated with batteries - see above).

5 - It WILL take a mix, there is no 'magic bullet'.  For airplanes, heavy
trucks, and construction equipment you need 1 part max density carbon mixed
with 15 parts of air, and that fuel is called diesel, JetA, kerosene, etc.
You can make it from other sources than crude but it will be a long time
before it can be replaced as the primary carbon source.

Brad

On Wed, Aug 13, 2008 at 9:48 AM, Tootle <ekroposki at charter.net> wrote:

>
> The following opinion on the Pickens Plan has been sanitized so that the
> source is not readily identified, other than to say the source is very
> qualified.  The reply is not political but offers an opinion based on
> analysis of plan by qualified commentator.
>
> 1. I like his idea of getting to 20% electricity being provided by wind. It
> is currently fairly cost competitive as an energy source. There is the big
> issue which he addresses of adding new transmission lines to get the wind
> from the places that it is windy (i.e. people don't want to live there) to
> where the major load pockets are. He list this as being $1.2 Trillion.
> which
> I belive is accurate.
>
> 2. I don't like the use of natural gas for the car fleet. I would be
> worried
> that we don't have enough and this is a short term solution. I like the
> ideas of using electricity for cars initially in the for of plug-in hybrid
> electric vehicles then a transition to either all electric or fuel cell
> vehicles if they become viable. Besides using natural gas in cars is very
> inefficient 25% in a combustion engine. Electric vehicles are much more
> efficient.
>
> 3. I would instead use the natural gas (via gas peaking plants) to make up
> for the added wind variability. Adding 20 % wind is doable, but that adds a
> lot of variability to how utilities operate the electric power system.
> Natural gas is currently used to "fill in" when the wind is not blowing.
> Natural gas should also be used for house/building heating.
>
> 4. By the way there is always the solar option. Solar is by far the most
> abundant energy resource in the US. A 100x100 square mile area covered in
> solar panels in Nevada would power all the electricity needs for the entire
> US. Of course you still have the transmission problems and the higher cost
> of solar energy.
>
> 5. I think we need to look at the entire energy sector: electricity,
> heating, transportation, etc. and develop a plan that uses all our national
> resources in the most effective manner. You still have coal and nuclear in
> the electricity picture for the foreseeable future. I think all of these
> will be in the mix and there should be a strategic plan to get off of
> foreign oil. So for this idea, there are good oints and bad points, but at
> least people are talking.
>
> The above has been provided for your benefit, personal understanding and
> intellectual growth.
>
> Ed K
> Greenville, SC, USA
>
>
>
>
> --
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> Sent from the Rhodes 22 mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
>
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