[Rhodes22-list] The end of the Rove era -- Political

Tue Nov 4 12:30:41 EST 2008

Rob, here is the CNN story...

Palin costing McCain, poll suggests

By Paul Steinhauser
CNN Deputy Political Director

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A new national poll suggests Sarah Palin may be
hurting Republican presidential nominee John McCain more than she's
helping him.

Fifty-seven percent of likely voters say Sarah Palin does not have the
personal qualities a president should have.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday indicates
McCain's running mate is growing less popular among voters and may be
costing him a few crucial percentage points in the race for the White
House.

Fifty-seven percent of likely voters questioned in the poll said Palin
does not have the personal qualities a president should have. That's
up 8 points since September.

Fifty-three percent say she does not agree with them on important
issues. That's also higher than September.

"Just after the GOP convention in early September, 53 percent said
they would vote for Palin over Joe Biden if there were a separate vote
for vice president. Now, Biden would beat Palin by 12 points if the
running mates were chosen in a separate vote," said CNN Polling
Director Keating Holland.

And what if voters were allowed to vote for president separately?

"It would be a 4-point edge for Barack Obama, 52 percent to 48
percent. Since the McCain-Palin ticket is currently getting 46 percent
in a match-up against the Obama-Biden ticket, it looks like Palin's
presence on the GOP ballot is taking 2 percentage points away from
McCain. In a close race, that might represent the margin of victory,"
Holland said.

The unfavorable numbers for Palin, Alaska's governor, also have been
growing. They are 8 points higher in the current poll than in early
October, and they're twice as high as they were when McCain announced
his running mate in late August.

"John McCain has also been suspect with conservatives, the base of the
Republican Party, and they were never enthusiastic about his
candidacy. Palin was a unusual pick. She was well known with
conservative insiders but unknown outside. When she was named, there
was a rush of enthusiasm among conservatives and everyone was
impressed by McCain's unusual and unexpected choice," said Bill
Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst .

"The more many Americans have found out about Palin, the less they like her."

Meanwhile, the poll also suggests Americans may not be as concerned as
McCain about one-party rule if Obama is elected president.

One of McCain's closing arguments has been that the Democrats are
poised to increase their majorities in Congress, and that Obama -- the
Democratic presidential nominee -- is "working out the details" with
Democratic leaders to raise taxes, increase spending and "concede
defeat in Iraq."

But in the poll, 50 percent of likely voters said if Obama wins the
White House, Congress should be controlled by Democrats, with 48
percent saying it should be controlled by Republicans.

Fifty-nine percent said if McCain wins the presidential election,
Congress should be controlled by Democrats, with 39 percent saying
Republicans should control it.

Democrats currently have a 235 to 199 majority in the House of
Representatives and a 51 to 49 majority in the Senate -- the chamber's
two independent senators are allied with the Democrats.

One of Obama's closing points is that McCain would carry out George
Bush's policies if elected, saying the Arizona senator has "ridden
shotgun" with the president on economic policy.

The poll suggests that 53 percent think McCain would mostly carry out
Bush's policies, with 45 percent saying he would not.

Only 28 percent approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president.

Likely voters questioned in the poll were also asked whether Obama
will win the election.  Watch more on the final days of campaigning »

"Nine in 10 think it's likely; nearly half say it is very likely. Only
1 in 10 say it is very likely that McCain will win, while half say a
McCain victory is unlikely," Holland said.

How will Obama supporters react if he does not win on Tuesday?
According to the poll, one in five will be angry; one in four will be
upset but not angry. Most Obama supporters, however, say they will be
disappointed but not angry or upset if McCain wins.

The poll also suggests the Democrats are much more excited about this
election than Republicans. Forty-five percent of Democrats questioned
said they are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, compared
to 28 percent of Republicans.

"The economy remains the No. 1 issue to most voters. But although 8 in
10 say that economic conditions are poor now, 62 percent say that the
economy will be in good shape a year from now," Holland said. "The
economy, which is already a strong issue, jumped even further in
importance after the financial crisis hit in September.

"And since the public tends to blame the Republicans more than the
Democrats for that crisis, that event provided a boost not just to
Barack Obama but to Democratic candidates across the country.
Democratic congressional candidates have a 9-point lead in the
'generic ballot' question."

The generic ballot asks voters their preference for U.S. House without
naming the candidates running in each district.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted Thursday
through Saturday, with 1,017 adult Americans, including 950 registered
voters and 716 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's
sampling error ranges from plus or minus 3 percentage points to plus
or minus 4.5 percentage points, depending on the question.

On Tue, Nov 4, 2008 at 7:29 AM, Lowe, Rob <rlowe at vt.edu> wrote:
> Dave,
> Thanks for the story.  I certainly agree with it.  I do think McCain's
> lurch towards the right hurt him.  We'll have to await the final results
> to see if it's true or not.  I do agree his pick of Palin may have cost
> McCain the election by alienating the middle.  I recall after the
> convention he floated the name of Tom Ridge as his running mate, but the
> base recoiled due to Ridge being pro life.  Tom Ridge may have helped
> him win Pennsylvania, which is so critical to McCain's chances.  So
> McCain was stuck trying to pick a running mate that appealed to the
> base, which was Palin.  Problem was it drove the middle away.  With
> Palin's approval ratings in the teens and her disapproval ratings over
> 50%, it's certainly not helping McCain.  If you have the CNN story, I'll
> read it. - rob
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
> [mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of David Bradley
> Sent: Monday, November 03, 2008 6:51 PM
> To: The Rhodes 22 Email List
> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] The end of the Rove era -- Political
>
> I think this in an interesting piece which reinforces what I've been
> saying about the importance of the middle of the political spectrum.
> A similar article on CNN.com over the weekend about how Sarah Palin
> may have cost McCain and herself the election by alienating the middle
> - I can send that link if anyone wants it.
>
> Dave
>
>
> http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15177.html
>
>
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-- 
David Bradley
+1.206.234.3977
dwbrad at gmail.com