[Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call

R22RumRunner at aol.com R22RumRunner at aol.com
Thu Sep 11 12:41:10 EDT 2008


jw,
A man can never own to many boats. Keep up the great work.
 
Rummy
 
 
In a message dated 9/11/2008 10:33:34 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com writes:

Aye  Rummy.....

<sigh> I am now a fleet commander.....3 boats!  

We bought a cheery Pearson 35 this spring when I was  overcome with "big 
boat" fever, and just the wife and I delivered her from  Kemah (up near Houston) 
down here, just in time for hurricane Dolly...all  faired well...she's a full 
rigged magic carpet for the next  big adventure, south to Isla Mujeres perhaps 
as early as late  fall...

I was going to deliver Olivia to a broker up there, but  it looks like Ike is 
going to do them a number....it keeps shifting a little  further up the coast.

We're beginning to see the surge, and I  have already adjusted the lines this 
morning...

Good news is the  rum looks like it might hold out (barring any impromteu  
parties)....

Le Menagerie is on her trailer next to the house,  and I have been restoring 
her bit by bit. COntemplating my next step with her.  She's a good old boat 
for sure.

jw

--- On Thu, 9/11/08,  R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:

From:  R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com>
Subject: Re:  [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
Date:  Thursday, September 11, 2008, 5:30 AM

jw,
Sounds like you have a  plan. I'd come down and help you drink the rum, but 

the wife and I are  off to Myrtle Beach for some R&R. Keep us informed as 
this 
thing  progresses. Are you still a two boat owner or have you found a new  
home  
for the Rhodes?

Rummy


In a message dated 9/10/2008  6:04:01 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com  writes:

Rummy
True....I am staying aboard to keep lines adjusted.  Looks like  the worst 
part will be a 2-4 foot storm surge here if the  thing goes in as  predicted 
around Port Lavaca. Have a locker full of  good rums here (inluding a  big
unopened 
bottle of Mt.  Gay)....You'd be proud!
jw

--- On Wed,  9/10/08,  R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:

From:   R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com>
Subject: Re:   [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
To:  rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
Date:  Wednesday, September 10, 2008, 10:53  AM

jw,
Glad to hear you are  getting ready. As long as you are  on the west side of  
her, you  should be okey  dokey.

Rummy


In a message dated 9/10/2008  11:44:25  A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com   writes:

Battening the hatches again. Right now the projected path  is  pretty far  
north (as always depending ona couple of   factors).....
jw

--- On  Tue, 9/9/08, Brad Haslett   <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:

From: Brad  Haslett   <flybrad at gmail.com>
Subject: [Rhodes22-list] IKE -  Heads-Up   Call
To: "The Rhodes 22 Email List"    <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
Date: Tuesday, September 9, 2008,   9:39  PM

Info for Texas coastal Rhodies -    Brad

----------------

September 9th, 2008 6:07 pm
Ike   reaches  the Gulf; could be a "worst-case" storm for   Texas


Hurricane Ike has  emerged in the Gulf of Mexico,  having  survived its
long passage over Cuba  relatively intact,  and it has a  good chance of
intensifying into a major  hurricane  — and aiming for a  highly
vulnerable part of the Texas coast.   According to Dr. Jeff  Masters,
"There is a significant chance that  Ike will  be the worst  hurricane to
hit Texas in over 40  years."

The standard  caveats  apply. Landfall in Texas is  more than three days
away. We don't  know  — we can't know —  exactly where Ike will go,
how
strong it will   get, or  whether it will maintain its strength all the
way to the  coast.   There are plenty of plausible scenarios which are
not "worst  case."  The  odds do not favor a calamity. They never do,
at
72+   hours out. But Ike is a  real threat.

This new sense of worry  is  fueled partly by the track. As  I mentioned
earlier, the  trend toward  a landfall in more sparsely populated  south
Texas  or northern Mexico  has halted, and now the computer model   tracks
are inching north — and  getting uncomfortably close to  the  heavily
populated, highly  vulnerable Houston/Galveston  region. In  Eric
Berger's words, "if the  models were to shift  just 50 or so miles  up
the coast, a landfall at  Freeport or  just to the northeast would  bring
the strongest winds to   Houston."

The new official forecast  track brings Ike ashore  just  north of Corpus
Christi, and the National  Hurricane  Center's 5:00 PM  discussion
acknowledges that this may be too  far  south:

THERE  HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN  THE  SPREAD OF THE LATEST
MODEL  RUNS…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND  NOGAPS ALL SHOWING  LESS RIDGING TO
THE  NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE  PERIOD AND SHIFTING THEIR  TRACKS
NORTHWARD  TO BE IN BETTER  AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS.  IKE
IS NOW  EXPECTED TO  RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE  SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE  NEAR THE  END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL  FORECAST  IS
ADJUSTED  NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE…BUT ALL OF THE   BETTER
DYNAMICAL  MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE  RIGHT.

Translation:  if the  models don't lurch back to the left,  the NHC's
forecast  landfall  point will move further away from Corpus  Christi  and
closer to Freeport —  the west edge of   Houston/Galveston's
"worst-case"
landfall  zone.

The  other  reason for alarm is Ike's failure to fall apart during   its
on-again,  off-again overland trek across Cuba, which has  just  ended.
It took  Ike almost 48 hours to traverse the island  from end to  end,
and the  storm's winds diminished from 135 mph  a few hours  before
landfall,  and 125 mph at landfall, to 75 mph  now. But the storm's  core
remains  structurally well  put-together, which is the key to    future
strengthening.

This is a crucial difference between   Gustav  and Ike. Although Gustav's
passage over Cuba was quite brief  —  just a few  hours — the effects of
land interaction, combined  with  wind shear, were  enough to
significantly disrupt the  storm's central  core, delaying  rapid
intensification until it  was too late for Gustav  to re-intensify  into
a monster. By  contrast, Ike's much lengthier  passage of Cuba did  not
have the  same effect. According to the  National Hurricane  Center's
5:00  PM discussion:

IKE MAINTAINED  A FAIRLY  WELL ORGANIZED CORE  STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER  WESTERN CUBA . . . IT  APPEARS  THAT THE CORE IS INTACT
ENOUGH TO TAKE  ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY   FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
OF  MEXICO.

Dr. Masters  summarizes  things even more  bluntly:

All indications are  that Ike  will intensify into a very  dangerous
major hurricane .  . . [S]atellite  loops show that Ike has  maintained a
large,  well-organized circulation  during its passage of  Cuba. The 4  pm
EDT center fix from the Hurricane  Hunters found a  central  pressure of
968 mb, which is characteristic of a  Category 2   hurricane. Passage
over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to   keep  Ike from
intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf  of   Mexico.

The barometric pressure issue is  particularly  interesting.  Ike's
pressure just before landfall  in Cuba was 945 mb,  typical of  a
borderline Category 3/4  hurricane, which is exactly what  Ike was  at
the time. During  the passage of Cuba, the pressure rose  "only" to 
968
mb, its  current value, which is typical of a borderline  Category   2/3
hurricane — not the borderline tropical storm/Cat. 1  that  Ike  actually
is. One reason for this, as I understand it, is   that Ike has  responded
to land interaction by spreading out its  wind  field over a wider  area,
which (I believe) tends to cause  a hurricane  to be  "weaker,"
wind-speed-wise, than its central  pressure would  normally  indicate.

If I'm not mistaken — and  here I must add the  caveat that I'm  not a
meteorologist, I just  play one on the Internet,  so someone  please
correct me if I'm  wrong — it would not be  surprising to see  Ike
"tighten up" a  bit over the Gulf, allowing its  winds to ramp up  to
something  more typically in line with the low  barometric pressure.   In
other words, Ike might not actually have to  "deepen" all that much  
to
become a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.

In  any case,  assuming Ike  does become a major hurricane over the Gulf
—   which seems likely, given its  core's organization, and given   that
both the Loop Current and a Loop  Current Eddy stand between  it  and
Texas — the big question is whether, and  how much, it  will then  weaken
before making landfall.

Alan Sullivan   (who, like me, is  an amateur weather buff, not a
meteorologist)  foresees  substantial  weakening:

[Ike's track will take it]  into a  zone of shear,  cooler water, and
interaction with an  approaching cold  front. Such a  scenario could
yield very heavy  rains, but it would not be  likely to  put a major
hurricane  ashore. Ike would weaken.

But Dr.   Masters, who is a  meteorologist (indeed, the co-founder of
Weather   Underground),  is less confident of such an eventuality:

The wind shear  for  Friday has changed, and we are expecting wind
shear to  remain   around 15 knots, which is still low enough to  allow
intensification.   There is much higher oceanic heat  content off the
Texas coast than  was  present off the Louisiana  coast for Gustav. Thus,
it is more  likely that  Ike will be able  to maintain major hurricane
status as it  approaches the  coast.  . . . Given the impressive
appearance of Ike on  satellite  imagery,  and the forecasts of high heat
content and low  shear  along its path, I  would be surprised if Ike hit
as anything   weaker than a Category 2  hurricane with 100 mph winds.
Here's  my  rough probability break-down for  Ike's strength  at
landfall,
I  forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major   hurricane at  landfall:

Category 1 or weaker:   20%
Category 2:  30%
Category 3:  30%
Category 4 or 5:  20%

A major-hurricane  landfall  anywhere along the middle  Texas coast would
be a very bad  thing, as Dr.  Masters points  out with his explanation of
why "Texas  is highly vulnerable  to  storm surge." But nowhere is the
threat  greater than in    Houston/Galveston, as this 2005 article  by
Berger explains in   detail:

Houston's perfect storm would  feed on late  summer's  warm waters as
it barreled northward across the  Gulf of Mexico,   slamming into the
coast near Freeport.

A  landfall here   would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant,
where  the waves move  in the  same direction as the storm, to  overflow
Galveston Bay.  Within an hour or  two, a storm surge, topping  out at 20
feet or  more, would flood the homes  of 600,000 people in  Harris
County.  The surge also would block the natural  drainage of   flooded
inland bayous and streams for a day or   more.

Coastal  residents who ignored warnings to flee  would  have no hope
of escape  as waters swelled and winds roiled  around  their homes. Very
likely,  hundreds, perhaps even  thousands, would  die.

Meanwhile, as the  storm moved over  western Harris  County, its most
dangerous winds,  well in excess  of 120 mph even inland,  would lash the
Interstate 45  corridor,  including Clear Lake, the Texas  Medical Center
and   downtown.

Many older buildings  could not withstand such   winds.

Anything not tied down,  from trees to mobile homes  to  light poles,
would become missiles, surreally  tumbling and  flying  through the air,
flattening small houses, shattering   skyscraper  windows and puncturing
roofs.

"Unfortunately, we're  looking at  massive devastation," said
Roy
Dodson,  president  of the  engineering firm Dodson & Associates, which
Harris   County asked  to model realistic "worst-case scenarios" for  a
major  hurricane  hitting the area.

Dodson's firm  modeled more  than 100 storms of  varying power, speed
and  landfall. It concluded that a  large Category  4 or Category 5 . .  .
would cause as much as $40 billion to  $50  billion in  damage.

Now, before anyone accuses me of "hype,"  please   re-read the second
paragraph of this post. The odds do not  favor  a  calamity. But a
worst-case scenario, or something close to   it, is now a  realistic
possibility, albeit one that's far from   certain. Texas residents  need
to watch this storm very closely,  and  not be lulled into a false  sense
of security by previous  false alarms  (Rita, Edouard, etc.). Ike  could
be the real deal.  Maybe it won't be  — but it could be.

Berger,  circa 2008,  says of Ike: "The bottom  line is that the Houston
area could   face a near worst-case scenario  with Ike, although I'd
still peg  the  chances of this happening at  one-in-four, or less." He
is,  I believe,  including any major  hurricane landfall (Cat. 3  or
above, not just Cat. 4 or  5) hitting  between Freeport and  Galeveston
in his "near worst-case"   category.

Dr.  Masters, for his part, spells out "a realistic  worse-case   scenario
for Texas":

There is a significant  chance  that  Ike will be the worst hurricane
to hit Texas in over 40  years.  The  latest run of the HWRF and GFDL
models paint a realistic   worst-case  scenario for Texas. These models
bring Ike to the coast  as  a Category 4  hurricane (which I give a 20%
probability of  happening).  The HWRF predicts  a 170-mile stretch of
coast will  receive hurricane  force winds of 74 mph or  greater. A
100-mile  stretch of coast will  receive winds of Category 3  strength
and  higher, 115 mph. Hurricane  force winds will push inland up to   50
miles, along a 50-mile wide  region where the eyewall makes  landfall.  A
100-mile stretch of Texas  coast will receive a  storm surge of  10-15
feet, with bays just to the  right of where  the eye makes  landfall
receiving a 20-25 foot storm  surge. This  is what Hurricane Carla  of
1961 did to Texas. Carla was a   Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph  winds
at landfall, and drove a  10  foot or higher storm surge to a  180-mile
stretch of Texas  coast. A  maximum storm surge of 22 feet was  recorded
at Port  Lavaca, Texas.  Despite the fact that the center of Carla   hit
over 120 miles  southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a   15-foot
storm surge into  the bays along the south side of the   city.

Bottom line: for folks  in Texas, it is not time to panic,  but it  is
time to prepare.  Determine, if you don't know  already, whether  you're
in an evacuation  zone. The rule of  thumb is "run from the water,  hide
from the wind,"  so unless  you're in a storm surge zone, a flood 
plain,
a poorly  constructed  home, or quite close to the shore, you can,  and
probably   should, plan to hunker down rather than get the hell out.   But
don't  listen to me — listen to your local authorities. And if  you  are
in an  evacuation zone, make the necessary preparations  to  leave
tomorrow or  Thursday, if and when the order  comes.

Again,  listen to the local  authorities on this: if  they tell you to
leave, you  should leave. Ike  is nothing to  trifle with. As I've said,
it may, for a  variety of  reasons,  prove to be something less than a
disaster — and if  this   happens, it will not mean the storm was
"overhyped," it will just   mean  you got lucky. Be grateful, if so.
But
you should not  play  Russian roulette  with this storm. Yes, previous
hurricanes  have made  lucky turns. Yes,  last-minute weakening  often
happens, and is  possible here. But those  fortuities are  not
guaranteed. Take  Ike    seriously.

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