[Rhodes22-list] Another Fearless Prediction

Roger Pihlaja cen09402 at centurytel.net
Sun Sep 26 21:07:22 EDT 2004


Bill,

Scott Rider's assertions to the contrary, consider this.  At the time Iraq
developed & was using their chemical & biological weapons, they were the 4th
largest military force in the world.  Iraq is mostly desert & all of Iraq's
neighbors are mostly desert.  Thus, any battle scenario that the Iraq
military could reasonably foresee, not matter whether it was defensive or
offensive would involve desert warfare.  These are smart people being driven
by a madman for whom failure was not an option.  Literally billions of
dollars in resources were available to these programs.  When your family is
being held hostage & your own life is in danger of imprisonment &/or torture
if you don't succeed, I would imagine most folks would get right down to
business & solve the biological, chemical, shelflife, & other technical
problems of getting chemical & biological weapons to work in a desert combat
scenario.  No one doubts that the United States & Russia know how to build
biological and chemical weapons.  The chemical weapons disposal program in
the US Army involved warheads that were something like 30+ years old & they
were treated with due respect.  Why would anyone doubt that the Iraq
military couldn't build a similarly robust, long shelf life weapon?
Sometimes, you have to give the devil his due.

Roger Pihlaja
S/V Dynamic Equilibrium

----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Effros" <bill at effros.com>
To: "The Rhodes 22 mail list" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
Sent: Sunday, September 26, 2004 6:23 PM
Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Another Fearless Prediction


> "If we find something, great, but professionally,
> I don't see how these weapons could exist. They
> defy the laws of industry, the laws of science and
> technology.They have no shelf life."
>
> Scott Ridder
> Former UN Inspector
> April 18, 2003
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Roger Pihlaja
> To: The Rhodes 22 mail list
> Sent: Sunday, September 26, 2004 3:34 PM
> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] Another Fearless Prediction
>
>
> Brad,
>
> Since your news story seems to have vindicated the prediction I made last
summer regarding smuggling WMD's out of Iraq into Syria & Lebanon, let me
make another fearless prediction.  By, the way Bill, you are mistaken
regarding the shelf life & stability of chemical & biological weapons.  They
are both plenty stable enough to be transported long distances over the
desert.  If they weren't, they would never survive the heat & pressure of
the explosive used to disperse them when the warhead goes off.  Anthrax, for
example, is a bacteria that lives naturally in the soil by forming spores
that are remarkably resistant to the environment.  So-called "weaponized"
Anthrax is actually a mixture of spray dried Anthrax spores stuck to the
surface of particles of an inert low density substrate such as finely ground
cellulose.  The trick is to get the particle size distribution just right so
the particles tend to get lofted into the air, float around on air currents
for long distances, & eventually get inhaled by potential victims.  In the
moist, warm conditions inside the respiratory tract, the Anthrax spores
spring back to life & infect the victim.  Chemical weapons are usually of
the so-called "binary" type wherein the warhead actually contains two
compartments.  Each compartment contains a reactive precusor.  When the
warhead is fired, the precursor chemicals are mixed together & chemically
react to form the final toxin, such as a nerve agent.  Although the final
toxin may have a short half life, each of the precursor chemicals is quite
stable over long periods of time.
>
> I just heard a news story that the US State Dept has approved the sale of
several hundred million dollars worth of "penetrating munitions" to Israel.
Now what do you suppose Israel would want with a boatload of bunker busters?
Unless Iran opens up its nuclear program to permit on-site inspections, I
predict Israel will do a coordinated air assault to take out about a dozen
key Iranian nuclear facilities all at the same time, in a scaled-up version
of a similar operation they pulled on Iraq in 1985(I think that was the
year?).  I predict this will happen in less than a year from now.  The
United States will chastise Israel in public for this action; but, in
private we will be thanking them for doing our dirty work for us.
>
> If the Iraqi WMD's really are in Syria &/or Lebanon, I hope we've captured
them by then.  Or maybe the approval of this sale of penetrating munitions
to Israel means they've already been secured by special forces or some other
means?  The general public may never hear the full story on this one.
>
> Roger Pihlaja
> S/V Dynamic Equilibrium
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