[Rhodes22-list] Energy -go sailing

[Bill Effros]

Ed,

When it comes to propping up and tearing down straw men, you have few peers.

Bill Effros

ed kroposki wrote:

>Bill:	
>	I am in a tear into them mood today.  Let everybody understand that
>there are alternative technologies to oil available today.  The biggest
>issue is cost.
>	There are even cheaper technologies available today, but the
>misinformed put up a big stink about them.
>	The tabloids suggest that secrets are being kept.  In the world
>today, if there was a cheaper, safer, non polluting way of doing things that
>require energy, do you really believe that it could be kept secret?  Do you
>think a threat of a patent infringement lawsuit would really stop using some
>innovative technology. If it worked, it would be all over the internet in a
>day.
>	As for something that we have not heard of yet, go ahead and invent
>it.  We are all waiting.  Why expect somebody else to do it.
>	Ed K
>	Greenville, SC, USA
>	:-{}
>  
>	
>-----Original Message-----
>From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
>[mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of Bill Effros
>Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 7:10 PM
>To: The Rhodes 22 mail list
>Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] Energy -not sailing
>
>Ron,
>
>I keep hearing that OPEC wants to keep the price of oil moderately low 
>to prevent the development of alternative technologies coupled with 
>projections that there's only 30-40 years worth of the stuff left.  
>Doesn't make sense to me.
>
>Bill Effros
>
>Ronald Lipton wrote:
>
>  
>
>>We had an interesting talk today by Steven Koonin, formerly the
>>provost of cal tech and now the chief scientist at BP.  Since there
>>was some discussion on the list about future energy issues it was useful
>>to get some up-to-date information.  He made a few interesting points:
>>
>>- It is in OPECs interest to keep the price of oil moderately low to 
>>prevent
>>development of alternative technologies and discourage conservation.
>>- The known reserves of oil is projected to last 41 years, gas 67 and
>> coal 200. The oil projection has been at 40 years for the past decade.
>>- The world supplies will begin to trend downward in ~20 years (non OPEC)
>>  and 30 years (OPEC)
>>- Technologies like natural gas and coal conversion to diesel become
>> cost effective at $40/barrel oil!
>>- Co2 loading of the atmosphere is a serious issue. (He felt that the 
>>cause/effect
>>  relation between Co2 and the demonstrated warming trend was plausible
>>  but not proven.) This will become particularly serious as the 
>>developing world
>>  become significant consumers.  It is a problem with no solution that 
>>is both
>>  politically and economically feasible.
>>- The developing world is the 1000 pound gorilla here - even moderate 
>>increase
>>  in per capita consumption is a huge effect with that many capitas.
>>- Population growth is expected to moderate - to about 8-10 billion 
>>toward the
>>  end of the century.
>>
>>We are actually going to have a series of these lectures, including 
>>fusion and
>>hydrogen power. For folks with fast connections the talks are 
>>available on
>>streaming video a few days after they are presented on:
>>http://www-ppd.fnal.gov/EPPOffice-w/colloq/colloq.html
>>
>>Ron
>>
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>>    
>>
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>  
>