[Rhodes22-list] Politics--Ted Koppel on Iraq

[Bill Effros]

Herb,

Here is a column by Ted Koppel in today's NYT. Please read it, I'd like 
to know what you think of it. I think it is a point of view that must be 
carefully considered.

Bill Effros

Look What Democratic Reform Dragged In
July 21, 2006
Guest Columnist

By TED KOPPEL
The New York Times
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The United States is already at war with Iran; but for the time being 
the battle is being fought through surrogates.

That message was conveyed to me recently by a senior Jordanian 
intelligence official at his office in Amman. He spoke on the condition 
of anonymity, reflecting gloomily on the failure of the Bush 
administration’s various policies in the region.

He reserved his greatest contempt for the policy of encouraging 
democratic reform. “For the Islamic fundamentalists, democratic reform 
is like toilet paper,” he said. “You use it once and then you throw it 
away.”

Lest the point elude me, the official conducted a brief tour of recent 
democratic highlights in the region. Gaza and the West Bank, where 
Hamas, spurned by the State Department as a terrorist organization, was 
voted into power last spring and now represents the Palestinian 
government; Lebanon, where Hezbollah, similarly rejected by the United 
States, has become the most influential political entity in the country; 
and, of course, Iraq, where the Shiite majority has now, through 
elections, gained political power commensurate with its numbers.

In each case, the intelligence officer reminded me, the beneficiary of 
those electoral victories is allied with and, to some degree, dependent 
upon Iran. Over the past couple of months alone, he told me, Hamas has 
received more than $300 million in cash, provided by Iran and funneled 
through Syria. He told me what has now become self-evident to the 
residents of Haifa: namely, that Iran has made longer-range and more 
powerful rockets and missiles available to Hezbollah in southern 
Lebanon. We’ll come back to the subject of Iraq.

Only a couple of days after my meeting in Amman, I visited a 
then-superficially peaceful Lebanon, where I was introduced to Sheik 
Nabil Qaouk, the commander of Hezbollah forces in the southern part of 
the country. Sheik Qaouk, who also holds the title of general, wears the 
robes and turban of a Shiite religious leader. Indeed, he studied 
religion for more than 10 years in the Iranian holy city of Qom. He 
received his military training in Iran and his wife and six children 
still live there.

Sheik Qaouk portrayed Hezbollah as being a purely defensive, Lebanese 
entity. But the more than 12,000 missiles and rockets that the sheik 
said were in Hezbollah’s arsenal were largely provided by Iran.

I asked about those newer, longer-range rockets mentioned by my 
Jordanian intelligence source. The sheik implicitly acknowledged their 
existence, but refused to talk about their capacities, with which the 
world has since become familiar. “Let our enemies worry,” he said.

When Sheik Qaouk talked about Israel and Hezbollah, his organization’s 
ambitions were not framed in purely defensive terms. There is only 
harmony between Hezbollah’s endgame and the more provocative statements 
made over the past year by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president. Both 
foresee the elimination of the Jewish state.

Are the Israelis over-reacting in Lebanon? Perhaps they simply perceive 
their enemies’ intentions with greater clarity than most. It is not the 
Lebanese who make the Israelis nervous, nor even Hezbollah. It is the 
puppet-masters in Tehran capitalizing on every opportunity that 
democratic reform presents. In the Palestinian territories, in Lebanon, 
in Egypt, should President Hosni Mubarak be so incautious as to hold a 
free election, it is the Islamists who benefit the most.

But Washington’s greatest gift to the Iranians lies next door in Iraq. 
By removing Saddam Hussein, the United States endowed the majority 
Shiites with real power, while simultaneously tearing down the wall that 
had kept Iran in check.

According to the Jordanian intelligence officer, Iran is reminding 
America’s traditional allies in the region that the United States has a 
track record of leaving its friends in the lurch — in Vietnam in the 
70’s, in Lebanon in the 80’s, in Somalia in the 90’s.

In his analysis, the implication that this decade may witness a 
precipitous American withdrawal from Iraq has begun to produce an 
inclination in the region toward appeasing Iran.

It is in Iraq, he told me, “where the United States and the coalition 
forces must confront the Iranians.’’ He added, “You must build up your 
forces in Iraq and you must announce your intention to stay.”

Sitting in his Amman office, he appeared to be a man of few illusions; 
so he did not make the recommendation with any great hope that his 
advice would be followed. But neither did he leave any doubts as to 
which country would benefit if that advice happened to be ignored.

Ted Koppel is a contributing columnist for The Times and the managing 
editor of the Discovery Channel.

Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company