[Rhodes22-list] Politics: Upping the Ante
Bill Effros
bill at effros.com
Sat Dec 27 10:33:34 EST 2008
Brad,
As noted previously, "stimulus" is the PC synonym for "earmarks".
The big O is slithering all over the place on the jobs number.
Originally this was the number of jobs he was going to add. Now it is
the number of jobs he will "save". The problem, as also noted
previously, is math.
If you divide a trillion dollars (1,000,000,000,000) by 2,000,000
workers, you get a cost of $500,000 per job. Now, I hope we all
understand that each worker doesn't actually get $500,000 -- that's just
the cost of "saving" a job...for 6 months! (All the money is supposed to
be spent within 6 months--wonder how many roads, bridges, tunnels, and
schools can be built on that time-table.)
The final numbers are not in yet, but it appears we will lose 2,000,000
jobs in the last 6 months of 2008. So, is Obama saying that his
trillion dollar earmark program will reduce the job loss rate to zero
over the next six months?
NO! As I understand it, we are doling out a trillion dollars only to
save jobs that "would have been lost had we not spent a trillion dollars".
Is this policy sustainable?
Obama projects continued job loss despite "stimulus" spending.
Presumably, we will have to spend another trillion dollars in the second
six months of 2009. We will do this without raising taxes, as the
number of workers paying taxes declines, capital gains taxes shrink,
fewer properties will pay less tax in aggregate due to declining
property values, foreclosure, and demolition...
And, we've replaced a moron with a crook.
Ray LaHood is clearly the best man for this job.
Bill Effros
Brad Haslett wrote:
> Bill,
>
> Here's more on La Hood. This idea of spending near a trillion or so on
> 2 million, no, make that three million jobs now (hell, since we're
> pulling numbers out of our ass why not make it five million?), is not
> a completely bad idea. We've lost at least a third of our illegal
> immigrant work force and this is just the thing to get them back. Do
> you think those unemployed bankers and stock brokers hanging around
> your dock would like to learn how to operate heavy equipment? I'm
> thinking about using ours to open a school. Surely there's some money
> at Education we can find for our deserving students. Just how many
> tits does the 'gubment' have anyway? I don't want to get stuck
> suckling on the left rear hind one!
>
> Brad
>
> -----------------------------
>
> >From the WSJ
>
> * DECEMBER 26, 2008
>
> Obama's Secretary of Earmarks
> His Transportation nominee is a spending superstar.
>
>
>
> Barack Obama wasn't kidding about the audacity of hope. In tapping
> Republican Illinois Congressman Ray LaHood to head the Transportation
> Department last week, he got more Beltway hosannas for bipartisanship.
> At the same time he managed to choose one of the biggest spenders in
> Congress, of either party, and just the fellow to push $850 billion in
> "stimulus" out the door.
> [Review & Outlook] AP
>
> Congressman Ray LaHood.
>
> As a long-time and stalwart Member of the House Appropriations
> Committee, Mr. LaHood facilitated the incontinent spending that helped
> Republicans lose their majority in 2006. And he did so
> unapologetically, once telling a reporter for the Peoria Journal Star,
> "The reason I went on the Appropriations Committee, the reason other
> people go on the Appropriations Committee, is they know that it puts
> them in a position to know where the money is at, to know the people
> who are doling the money out and to be in the room when the money is
> being doled out."
>
> Mr. LaHood was also among those who most resisted backbench GOP
> efforts to curb earmarks. "If people like Ray LaHood and others aren't
> able to earmark dollars, that money will be spent by some bureaucrat
> in Washington, D.C.," he said earlier this year. "And who knows better
> how to spend money on worthwhile projects than a community and an
> individual Congressman?" We'll be fascinated to see how he interprets
> that governing dictum now that he's on the other side of Pennsylvania
> Avenue.
>
> According to Taxpayers for Common Sense, in fiscal 2008 the
> Congressman secured $62.7 million in earmarks for his district --
> either alone or working with other Members. That put him in the top
> 10% of House pork-barrelers. Mr. Obama repeatedly said during the
> Presidential campaign that the earmarking system should be overhauled,
> yet he's elevated to his cabinet a Machiavelli of this system.
> Related
>
> * Bridges to Everywhere
>
> Mr. LaHood's thin background in transportation policy also makes him a
> curious choice. Rodney Slater, who served under President Clinton, had
> been Director of the Federal Highway Administration. Norm Mineta, his
> successor, had previously headed the House Transportation Committee in
> Congress. The current Transportation Secretary, Mary Peters, was
> Arizona's Director of Transportation Policy. Mr. LaHood, who's
> retiring from Congress after 14 years, once served on the
> Transportation Committee but was not particularly active in those
> issues or debates.
>
> On the other hand, with Mr. Obama planning what looks to be one of the
> largest single increases in federal spending in history, Mr. LaHood
> may be exactly the man for the moment. Though a Republican, as a
> fellow politician from Illinois he's also well known to Mr. Obama and
> his new chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel. The only "change" he represents
> is the greater share of American income he'll eagerly spend.
>
>
>
> On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 4:14 PM, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
>
>> Brad,
>>
>> Glad you're home safe and sound.
>>
>> My view of the future is not as rosy as yours.
>>
>> The Chinese can't afford to call in their markers, and they know it.
>> They also know they will need new markets to sell into, because, no
>> matter how you slice it, we won't ever be able to sustain the level of
>> imports vs. exports in the future we papered over in the past.
>>
>> They are also smart enough to know what happened to the Saudis and
>> Japanese when they started buying swampland in Florida and skyscrapers
>> in NY. That strategy goes nowhere.
>>
>> Everyone outside the high-density housing markets knew what was going on
>> with high density tract homes on almost worthless rural land. Now there
>> are no jobs, no services, no governments, no schools, and no interest in
>> ever again living in those homes. All that wealth will one day be
>> bulldozed into the ground. The sooner the better.
>>
>> And, how about that Ray LaHood appointment as Secretary of the Pork
>> Barrel? I never realized he was an Arab.
>>
>> Talk about the foxes guarding the hen house...
>>
>> Bill Effros
>>
>>
>>
>> Brad Haslett wrote:
>>
>>> Bill,
>>>
>>> First, some personal notes: dragging ass after a grueling early
>>> morning six hour drive, the last hour into Memphis was extremely heavy
>>> rain - time for a nap. Gulfport is not short of bars and I made the
>>> rounds to catch-up on old friends. The bar business is down. The
>>> working men aren't working but the usual suspects were there - retired
>>> military, retired municipal workers, folks drawing disability (lots of
>>> them around), and just plain retired. Nothing against those people
>>> (except the "disabled" who ask me for part time work) but you're not
>>> going build a vibrant work force and an economy with that crowd. Our
>>> client "found" some more money after I explained to him that I
>>> understood his cash flow issues, I just needed to stop by the
>>> courthouse on the way out of town and file a lien, nothing personal,
>>> just business. Everyone is trying to "lean-on-the-trade". I learned
>>> that game 30 years ago with New York based clothing manufacturers with
>>> plants located in Arkansas before everything was shipped to China.
>>> Homie don't play!
>>>
>>> Obama's alligator mouth promised more than his sparrow ass can
>>> deliver. Bush 43 was a profligate spender and Obama's plan to
>>> double-down on spending won't work. The Chinese aren't interested in
>>> loaning more money. The best we can hope for is that they don't call
>>> in their markers. He may very well crank-up the printing presses and
>>> we know where that leads. The basic problem here is that real estate
>>> went through a government sponsored bubble and until the excess is
>>> sucked-up, few markets will recover. Asian investors are buying, cash
>>> laden investors are buying, lots of energy in the real estate
>>> marketplace is sucking-up the excess inventory but Congress feels they
>>> need to bailout "the little guy speculator". People are starting to
>>> fall behind in payments just so they'll qualify for 'gubment' dictated
>>> re-financing. The building we tore down this week should have come
>>> down three years ago but the owners (pretty wealthy) didn't want to be
>>> the dumb asses that missed out on some 'gubment' program. Markets
>>> work but they take time. The One knows nothing about markets, he's
>>> never participated in one himself. What he has done is steer tens of
>>> millions of dollars to friends in housing projects that were
>>> eventually condemned or taken over by the 'gubment'.
>>>
>>> I don't see anyway around a major government crisis. Fitz has the
>>> goods on The One. Maybe if they just say "forgetaboutit" with Blago
>>> they can spare The One but their crimes are the same. The NYT's will
>>> either save themselves by putting down the crack pipe and the Kool-Aid
>>> and acting like a newspaper or they'll go bankrupt - which is my bet.
>>>
>>> Back to personal stuff: my retirement is waaaay off in the future and
>>> off schedule. My boys both have strong backs and good work ethic -
>>> they'll need both. This ain't gonna be our father's economy.
>>>
>>> Brad
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Dec 24, 2008 at 8:22 AM, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>> Brad,
>>>>
>>>> Did you see Buchanan's line:
>>>> Oear old hangs on to believing in Santa Claus because the
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> alternative is just too painful. Most of the MSM is near bankruptcy,
>>>>> and soon enough they'll realize that short of a bailout, actually
>>>>> printing news and doing investigation sells. I'm trying to find the
>>>>> happy ending to this scenario but don't see it quite yet. Barry is
>>>>> already severely crippled and folks are waking-up. I'm betting this
>>>>> drags on until 2010 and so does the lackluster economy. How's that
>>>>> for Christmas cheer?
>>>>>
>>>>> Brad
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, Dec 23, 2008 at 9:23 AM, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> Brad-Iloveit!Weshouldsendallmessagesthisway--it'slikeusingthesecretdecoderringallthetime--onlyMJMwillbeabletounderstandwhatwehavetosay,andmaybeRummy.MerryChristmas.BillEffross/vLittleQueenie
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Brad Haslett wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Bill,stuckatcorporateheadquarterswithabadspacekeyonthekeyboard-maybespilledbeer-willgetnewkeyboardandrespondlater-blagotookplay-to-paytothenextlevel-thegreatOcan'thidepastdeeds-nowinsituationforeveryone-wegetBiden-countrycontinuestolisteconomically-gottogocollectsomemony-timesarehardandmoneytight-somyclientstellme-homeydon'tplaythatgame-customerwaiteduntilwemobilizedtotellushiscashflowproblems-itmaybeChristmasbutI'mnotinChristmasmood-lateifIdon'tgetshot!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Brad
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Tue, Dec 23, 2008 at 7:59 AM, Bill Effros <bill at effros.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Brad,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> It just got a little tougher for Obama to fire Fitz.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Fitz let Obama know who "in the administration" he taped, but he didn't
>>>>>>>> let Obama know what they said.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> So the whole country will learn some of the people Fitz is investigating
>>>>>>>> are part of "Team Obama".
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> There is an obvious conflict of interest if you try to fire someone who
>>>>>>>> is investigating you. Ask Nixon.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Please note, Blagojevich was part of "Team Obama" until just a few weeks
>>>>>>>> ago.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Let me ask the question again..."Why did Obama resign his Senate seat
>>>>>>>> early?"
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> (Background: this is not "traditional" -- Hillary did not resign her
>>>>>>>> seat; Biden did not resign his seat; Rahm Emanuel did not resign his
>>>>>>>> seat; etc. Their votes were needed for the "lame duck" session--in
>>>>>>>> fact, the automaker "bail out bill" might have passed if Obama hadn't
>>>>>>>> thrown away his vote. The ONLY beneficiary of an early resignation was
>>>>>>>> Governor Rod Blogojevich, who could no longer barter the seat according
>>>>>>>> to Illinois law after 1/1/09. So Obama threw him a bone.)
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Bill Effros
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>
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