[Rhodes22-list] POLITICAL-Palin Begins 2012 Campaign

David Bradley dwbrad at gmail.com
Wed Nov 26 13:24:41 EST 2008 

Exit poll data.

On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 10:03 AM, Herb Parsons <hparsons at parsonsys.com> wrote:
> Dave,
>
> What are you basing this on, other than your opinion?
>
>
> David Bradley wrote:
>> As Robert points out, the article is talking about the Republican
>> base, which represents a minority.  The most telling analysis I looked
>> at was the exit poll data (without any media spin), which I spent some
>> time digging through.  I can't seem to find a link to the data any
>> longer.  But from memory, it said that about 30% of voters consider
>> themselves conservative and voted overwhelmingly for McPalin.  That
>> about 40% consider themselves liberal and voted overswhelmingly for
>> Obama.  The middle third carried the election (as they always do) and
>> leaned marginally toward Obama.  I still contend that a more moderate
>> VP pick by McCain could have swung the election, or at least closed
>> the gap quite a bit.  None of your or Brad's arguments speak to the
>> moderate middle.  I get that Palin energized the Conservative base.
>> Could Palin have driven more Republicans to the polls?  Perhaps that
>> accounts for a point or two but that seems a stretch.
>>
>> Dave
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Nov 25, 2008 at 11:12 PM, Herb Parsons <hparsons at parsonsys.com> wrote:
>>
>>> You've been reading the wrong analsys'. I haven't read anything that
>>> puts a number, but there have been MANY pieces by conservatives that
>>> talk about how she energized the base, and pulled people to support McCain.
>>>
>>> David Bradley wrote:
>>>
>>>> Brad, do you really believe that?  "Despite what the pundits write,
>>>> McCain would have lost by 10 points without Palin."  I've not seen a
>>>> single piece of analysis that doesn't say Pailin cost McCain votes in
>>>> the centrist crowd.  I am not debating that she accomplished good
>>>> things in Alaska or that she isn't a viable conservative candidate.  I
>>>> just think she contributed to the defeat this time.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Dave
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, Nov 25, 2008 at 5:52 PM, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Rummy,
>>>>>
>>>>> Sorry to burst your bubble but that is not going to happen.  Despite
>>>>> what the pundits write, McCain would have lost by 10 points without
>>>>> Palin.  There are still a few of us left who believe in ourselves and
>>>>> not some some 'gubment' program as our path to happiness and
>>>>> prosperity.  Will Palin make it to the Whitehouse?  Maybe, maybe not.
>>>>> Unlike "The One" where people project their hopes on a blank slate,
>>>>> Sarah Palin has a real record of accomplishments. Get use to is Rummy,
>>>>> Sarah has always written her own ticket and she's not losing sleep
>>>>> about your bitching.  Come to think of it, neither am I.
>>>>>
>>>>> Brad
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, Nov 25, 2008 at 7:42 PM,  <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> Brad,
>>>>>> Nobody is worried about Palin, we would just appreciate it if she would go
>>>>>> home.....and stay there.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Rummy
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In a message dated 11/25/2008 7:34:06 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
>>>>>> flybrad at yahoo.com writes:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Ben,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Sooner or later, people will figure out that Sarah Palin is  the "real deal".
>>>>>>  She didn't make fools out of Big Oil CEO's by being  stupid despite the
>>>>>> howls of derision against her by you and your ilk.   When the patina of
>>>>>> "sacredness" has worn off The One, people will be hungry  for someone of substance.
>>>>>> Laugh your ass off while you can.  The  press and the 'leftards' wouldn't pay so
>>>>>> much attention to Palin if they  weren't worried about her.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Brad
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --- On Tue, 11/25/08, Ben  Cittadino <bcittadino at dcs-law.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> From: Ben  Cittadino <bcittadino at dcs-law.com>
>>>>>>> Subject:  [Rhodes22-list]  POLITICAL-Palin Begins 2012 Campaign
>>>>>>> To:  rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
>>>>>>> Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2008, 6:04  PM
>>>>>>> November 25, 2008, 3:11 pm NYTimes Online
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>  "Southern Exposure
>>>>>>> By Tobin Harshaw
>>>>>>> Well, for those of you who  thought Sarah Palin would
>>>>>>> quietly go North to the
>>>>>>> Future, it  appears that instead she's going Deep South:
>>>>>>> "Republican vice
>>>>>>>  presidential nominee Sarah Palin will make multiple
>>>>>>> campaign  appearances on
>>>>>>> behalf of Sen. Saxby Chambliss next week in  Georgia,
>>>>>>> serving as the
>>>>>>> political closer for the GOP senator  who is battling to win
>>>>>>> a second term,"
>>>>>>> reports CNN.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "This is Palin's first campaign appearance on behalf of
>>>>>>>  another Republican
>>>>>>> candidate since losing her bid to become the  nation's
>>>>>>> first woman to serve
>>>>>>> as vice president. Palin will  attend a fundraiser on Sunday
>>>>>>> night, then
>>>>>>> appear at multiple  campaign stops on Monday in an effort to
>>>>>>> rally the GOP
>>>>>>> base to  turn out to vote for Chambliss. The incumbent
>>>>>>> Republican is facing  a
>>>>>>> strong challenge from Democrat Jim Martin. A runoff is
>>>>>>>  scheduled for next
>>>>>>> Tuesday, after neither candidate received the 50  percent
>>>>>>> plus one vote
>>>>>>> needed to win on Election Day."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Doug Mataconis at Donklephant considers the strategy:
>>>>>>> "The  biggest challenge
>>>>>>> that both Chambliss and Martin face in the run-off  election
>>>>>>> is getting their
>>>>>>> voters to turn out to the polls,  since it's unlikely that
>>>>>>> voter turnout will
>>>>>>> be anywhere near  the level it reached on November 4th. To
>>>>>>> the extent that
>>>>>>> she's  able to motivate the base to get out and vote,
>>>>>>> Palin could  prove
>>>>>>> useful to Chambliss."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Dr. Steven Taylor at  Poliblog thinks this may be more about
>>>>>>> Palin than
>>>>>>> Chambliss.  "First, the move is further evidence of
>>>>>>> Palin's likely  long-term
>>>>>>> ambitions," he writes. "Second, the move means that
>>>>>>>  Chambliss thinks that
>>>>>>> Palin plays well with the GOP base in a red  state like
>>>>>>> Georgia … Certainly
>>>>>>> if Chambliss wins, the trip  will be perceived as evidence
>>>>>>> that Palin is a
>>>>>>> serious actor  within the GOP going forward, at least within
>>>>>>> GOP circles."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Palin or no Palin, Ed Morrissey at Hot Air is cautiously
>>>>>>>  optimistic about
>>>>>>> the G.O.P. chances:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Voter  enthusiasm for Martin has declined since the general
>>>>>>> election.  Martin
>>>>>>> got his momentum from the massive numbers of Obama  voters,
>>>>>>> most of whom
>>>>>>> appear less interested in the remaining  down-ticket race.
>>>>>>> Chambliss may not
>>>>>>> have that problem, since  John McCain didn't generate an
>>>>>>> enthusiastic
>>>>>>> response from the  Republican base, meaning that
>>>>>>> Chambliss' voters will be
>>>>>>>  motivated more by Chambliss himself. Republicans have the
>>>>>>>  secondary
>>>>>>> motivation to deny Obama a filibuster-proof Senate  by
>>>>>>> ensuring Chambliss'
>>>>>>> re-election.
>>>>>>> Either way, it  looks like it will go down to the wire.
>>>>>>> Republicans around
>>>>>>> the  country who want to keep at least one potential check
>>>>>>> on the excesses  of
>>>>>>> single-party government had better start actively
>>>>>>>  supporting the Chambliss
>>>>>>> effort."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>  We can't make  this stuff up.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Happy Thanksgiving;
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Ben  C.
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> View this message in context:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> http://www.nabble.com/POLITICAL-Palin-Begins-2012-Campaign-tp20692288p20692288.html
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>  Sent from the Rhodes 22 mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>> --
>>> Herb Parsons
>>>
>>> __________________________________________________
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>>> __________________________________________________
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
> --
> Herb Parsons
>
> __________________________________________________
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> __________________________________________________
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-- 
David Bradley
+1.206.234.3977
dwbrad at gmail.com

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