[Rhodes22-list] POLITICAL-Palin Begins 2012 Campaign
Bill Effros
bill at effros.com
Sun Nov 30 12:25:18 EST 2008
Brad,
Johnson got 61% of the vote in 1964. Obama got 52%. The difference
between what Obama paid for each winning vote and what McCain paid for
each losing vote was greater than in any other Presidential campaign in
history--it won't happen again. There was no "landslide" turnout for Obama.
Please don't smoke the same pipe as those other guys. It's not tobacco.
Bill Effros
Brad Haslett wrote:
> Andrew,
>
> Yes, thank you for reminding me that somewhere along the way I passed
> into "old fart" status and there wasn't even so much as a moment of
> silence, much less a celebration. This indeed was an election about
> "change" and that has been my point all along - what change are you
> getting? The Obama in the Fall campaign was a very different Obama
> from the Spring campaign. The post-election Obama is yet another
> "change". Obama in private was different than Obama in public. The
> candidate himself said early in the campaign that he was a blank slate
> that people projected their hope and values on, and he proved himself
> a political genius. He is indeed IMHO a more astute politician than
> Bill Clinton - one of the best. It was a well run campaign and with
> the help of a compliant press, few supporters delved too deeply into a
> life long pattern of politically expedient "changes" and relationships
> that were quickly tossed aside when they were no longer useful. For
> some, that is perceived as useful pragmatism, and for others, the
> reaction is "what the hell are you talking about?" Maybe the
> difference is whether one is an "old fart" or not.
>
> I remain cautiously optimistic that the pragmatic and political genius
> side of our new President will move rapidly to the center (where most
> of the country is politically) and so far he appears to be doing so.
> Bush 43 will leave office with about the same approval ratings as
> Harry Truman, and as time passes, the 44th President will continue
> the previous administration's policies out of necessity (particularly
> Homeland Security policies). History will treat W kindly in the long
> run, especially if a stable and democratic Iraq proves to be the
> positive long-term change agent in the Middle East. I can't defend his
> pattern of careless freespending on dubious domestic programs, but in
> a cynical fashion, he may have limited further growth of fiscal
> recklessness by maxing out the nation's credit card.
>
> As to Palin, she will remain a strong voice of many among
> Conservatives and Libertarians. We're a beleaguered group these days
> with a GOP that pays us lip service and a nation with a large voting
> bloc of youth that has no experience or memory of previously tried
> and failed policies. We've been down this road before - 1964 comes to
> mind. As the old Clinton theme song used to say, "Don't Stop Thinking
> About Tomorrow", or at least 2010.
>
> Brad
>
> On Sat, Nov 29, 2008 at 9:02 PM, Andrew Collins
> <sailingvesselcarmen at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Brad
>>
>> In this small business, all 9 of us, 1 owner and 8 employees voted for O-B
>> and very much against Mooseolini. All 9 of us considered McCain to be an
>> intelligent and viable candidate until he made a cynical and fateful choice.
>> STOP! Let me finish: the other 8 come from locations, and political and
>> social milieus that could not be more different or more far-flung. Despite
>> that, they seemed to agree that it was time for a change. These are facts on
>> the ground. I wanted to touch on a point I menttiioned her before to you,
>> which you gave an answer to that did not reflect where the reasoning was
>> going:
>>
>> Obama was voted in by a demographic that does not really know who Reagan
>> was, has no clear memories of the Clinton Regnum, and if they were to meet
>> the esteemed members of 'da list', I very much fear they would consider us
>> all 'old farts'. I don't appreciate this, but it is for me, at least,
>> another fact on the ground, take it or leave it.
>>
>> What cocky step? Obama is a person who reasons, and calculates, which is
>> more effective and vastly more dangerous than being cocky. Who could that be
>> the antithesis of?
>>
>> Robert and Dave have clearly stated how we got here.
>>
>> As to campaign finance reform, it is indeed a Utilitarian water-shed.
>> Welcome to the future.
>>
>> On another note, we (the whole family- Mom, Dad, 3 kids) spent the holiday
>> in Washington DC and spent lots of time on civics lessons, the election and
>> the institutions that make up our government. It was quite wonderfully
>> inspirational - we will, as a nation, once again show ourselves and the
>> world that we can inspire and lead 'using the power of our example, not the
>> example of our power'.
>>
>> Andrew
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 12:49 PM, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>>> Dave,
>>>
>>> Someone got fooled here. This small businessman/professional didn't
>>> like one single thing Obama had to say about what his plans were. Now
>>> it seems his plans are to stick with what's worked in the past. I
>>> think the cocky bounce went out of his step after the first security
>>> briefing and his first meeting with President Bush. This election may
>>> be a watershed moment in campaign honesty and fund raising methods.
>>> That said, unlike the rabid opposition to W, Obama IS MY PRESIDENT and
>>> I wish him success! There will be another day and another place for a
>>> fight. Godspeed Barry and 'Don't Forget Your Raisins'
>>>
>>> Brad.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 11:24 AM, David Bradley <dwbrad at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Brad, I think you missed the point. I was simply saying that a
>>>> significant majority of +$250K voters voted for Obama. That's a fact.
>>>> I can't remember the number but it was a pretty healthy margin. That
>>>> statisitc is driven by the "bulk" of people you cite. The "with their
>>>> heads" part was of course my own editorial comment. Have you ever
>>>> made an editorial comment on this list?
>>>>
>>>> The "far left" is doing some rumbling from the fringes - that's ok
>>>> with me. The "change" thing was vs. the last 8 years as I heard it -
>>>> I've got no problem pulling in a team that has a mixture of
>>>> experienced people from a successful administration (personal
>>>> failiures of the leader notwithstanding) and some newcomers and a
>>>> range of liberal-to-moderate thinking. Seems to me he's reflecting
>>>> the wishes of the voters that put him in office pretty well. His
>>>> actions to date appear to me to be well thought through and decisive,
>>>> balanced, and smart.
>>>>
>>>> Dave
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 8:40 AM, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Dave,
>>>>>
>>>>> "That group on average voted with their heads".
>>>>>
>>>>> Now you're starting to blow smoke up your own ass. What is the
>>>>> "average" for the $250K+ crowd? Every income group is part of a
>>>>> pyramid. No one looks down the pyramid, always up. The $250K+ group
>>>>> you speak of are composed of some "super-rich" but the bulk of the
>>>>> $250K+ are small businessmen and professionals and some who inherited
>>>>> wealth. The super-rich and inherited wealth types are reliably
>>>>> liberal. The bulk of those who earned their income (most highly
>>>>> successful small businessmen) are not.
>>>>>
>>>>> It doesn't matter who voted for whom or for what reason. Obama was/is
>>>>> a blank slate and no one is quite sure what they just got. The far
>>>>> left is pretty sure they just got hosed. Conservatives are starting
>>>>> to think this guy is more worried about 2010 and 2012 and like most
>>>>> incoming POTUS's, is reluctant to vary too far too fast from the
>>>>> previous administration.
>>>>>
>>>>> The Hopey, Changy thing is dying pretty quickly based on cabinet
>>>>> appointments. As in all things, your mileage may vary.
>>>>>
>>>>> Brad
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 10:13 AM, David Bradley <dwbrad at gmail.com>
>>>>>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>>>> Brad, a couple of things to consider... first, if there are 38% of
>>>>>> people who don't pay taxes and about 39% of people who are eligible to
>>>>>> vote and don't, don't you think there is a huge overlap of those two
>>>>>> groups? Obama didn't just need 13% more to win. He won because he
>>>>>> carried the moderate middle.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Second, people vote their pocketbook? Obama pulled a stronger
>>>>>> majority out of the +$250K income group than he did out of middle
>>>>>> income groups. That group on average voted with their heads.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Dave
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 4:26 AM, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com>
>>>>>>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>>>>> Rummy,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> In the final analysis, people vote their pocket book. The financial
>>>>>>> meltdown doomed McCain. When you have 38% of the voting population who
>>>>>>> don't pay federal income taxes, you only need 13% more to win. That's
>>>>>>> a tough hurdle to overcome. The Rust Belt will still be blue in four
>>>>>>> years - those jobs are gone and they're not coming back. The Peoples
>>>>>>> Republic of California and her sister states Oregon and Washington are
>>>>>>> probably a lost cause for the GOP for some time. I would have bet
>>>>>>> good money that McCain would win enough of the Jewish vote in Florida
>>>>>>> to win there, instead, that vote went to Obama 4% higher than Kerry.
>>>>>>> Remember 1994. Obama is moving cautiously because he has to, good for
>>>>>>> him. But, remember 1994. A lot can happen in two years.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Brad
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 6:14 AM, <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Brad,
>>>>>>>> It has nothing to do about liking or disliking a person. It has to do
>>>>>>>>
>>> with
>>>
>>>>>>>> qualifications. In spite of her wonderful accomplishments in her very
>>>>>>>>
>>> rural,
>>>
>>>>>>>> oil supported state, she is not qualified to be president.
>>>>>>>>
>>> Personally I was
>>>
>>>>>>>> undecided who to vote for when I entered the polling place. My last
>>>>>>>>
>>> second
>>>
>>>>>>>> decision to vote for Obama was made because of John McCains health
>>>>>>>>
>>> issues and his
>>>
>>>>>>>> poor choice of a running mate. Had he made a better choice, he might
>>>>>>>>
>>> have
>>>
>>>>>>>> been the president elect at this time.
>>>>>>>> Right now I am very comfortable with my decision.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Rummy
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> In a message dated 11/26/2008 7:08:08 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
>>>>>>>> flybrad at gmail.com writes:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Rummy,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I was still typing when you posted - see above. It may be a long
>>>>>>>> wait. Remember, it was two decades between JFK and Ronald Reagan.
>>>>>>>> Palin will be around in some form for a long time. If she chooses to
>>>>>>>> run for a second term as Guv she'll win easily or a US Senate seat
>>>>>>>>
>>> in
>>>
>>>>>>>> two years. You obviously don't like her, that's fine. I seriously
>>>>>>>> doubt you've done your homework on what she's accomplished in
>>>>>>>>
>>> Alaska,
>>>
>>>>>>>> including blowing-up her own party to weed out the bad guys. We
>>>>>>>>
>>> need
>>>
>>>>>>>> more people like Palin who follow-up on their talk with action
>>>>>>>>
>>> instead
>>>
>>>>>>>> of bullshit.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Brad
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Wed, Nov 26, 2008 at 5:59 AM, <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Brad,
>>>>>>>>> Get real. If Sarah Palin is the best that the Republican party has
>>>>>>>>>
>>> to offer
>>>
>>>>>>>>> for running this country, then they need to get ready for a long
>>>>>>>>>
>>> wait
>>>
>>>>>>>> before
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> another Republican will enter the white house.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Rummy
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> In a message dated 11/25/2008 8:52:59 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
>>>>>>>>> flybrad at gmail.com writes:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Rummy,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Sorry to burst your bubble but that is not going to happen.
>>>>>>>>>
>>> Despite
>>>
>>>>>>>>> what the pundits write, McCain would have lost by 10 points
>>>>>>>>>
>>> without
>>>
>>>>>>>>> Palin. There are still a few of us left who believe in ourselves
>>>>>>>>>
>>> and
>>>
>>>>>>>>> not some some 'gubment' program as our path to happiness and
>>>>>>>>> prosperity. Will Palin make it to the Whitehouse? Maybe, maybe
>>>>>>>>>
>>> not.
>>>
>>>>>>>>> Unlike "The One" where people project their hopes on a blank
>>>>>>>>>
>>> slate,
>>>
>>>>>>>>> Sarah Palin has a real record of accomplishments. Get use to is
>>>>>>>>>
>>> Rummy,
>>>
>>>>>>>>> Sarah has always written her own ticket and she's not losing sleep
>>>>>>>>> about your bitching. Come to think of it, neither am I.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Brad
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Tue, Nov 25, 2008 at 7:42 PM, <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Brad,
>>>>>>>>>> Nobody is worried about Palin, we would just appreciate it if she
>>>>>>>>>>
>>> would
>>>
>>>>>>>> go
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> home.....and stay there.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Rummy
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> In a message dated 11/25/2008 7:34:06 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
>>>>>>>>>> flybrad at yahoo.com writes:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Ben,
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Sooner or later, people will figure out that Sarah Palin is the
>>>>>>>>>>
>>> "real
>>>
>>>>>>>>> deal".
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> She didn't make fools out of Big Oil CEO's by being stupid
>>>>>>>>>>
>>> despite the
>>>
>>>>>>>>>> howls of derision against her by you and your ilk. When the
>>>>>>>>>>
>>> patina of
>>>
>>>>>>>>>> "sacredness" has worn off The One, people will be hungry for
>>>>>>>>>>
>>> someone of
>>>
>>>>>>>>> substance.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Laugh your ass off while you can. The press and the 'leftards'
>>>>>>>>>>
>>> wouldn't
>>>
>>>>>>>>> pay so
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> much attention to Palin if they weren't worried about her.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Brad
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> --- On Tue, 11/25/08, Ben Cittadino <bcittadino at dcs-law.com>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> From: Ben Cittadino <bcittadino at dcs-law.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] POLITICAL-Palin Begins 2012 Campaign
>>>>>>>>>>> To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
>>>>>>>>>>> Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2008, 6:04 PM
>>>>>>>>>>> November 25, 2008, 3:11 pm NYTimes Online
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> "Southern Exposure
>>>>>>>>>>> By Tobin Harshaw
>>>>>>>>>>> Well, for those of you who thought Sarah Palin would
>>>>>>>>>>> quietly go North to the
>>>>>>>>>>> Future, it appears that instead she's going Deep South:
>>>>>>>>>>> "Republican vice
>>>>>>>>>>> presidential nominee Sarah Palin will make multiple
>>>>>>>>>>> campaign appearances on
>>>>>>>>>>> behalf of Sen. Saxby Chambliss next week in Georgia,
>>>>>>>>>>> serving as the
>>>>>>>>>>> political closer for the GOP senator who is battling to win
>>>>>>>>>>> a second term,"
>>>>>>>>>>> reports CNN.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> "This is Palin's first campaign appearance on behalf of
>>>>>>>>>>> another Republican
>>>>>>>>>>> candidate since losing her bid to become the nation's
>>>>>>>>>>> first woman to serve
>>>>>>>>>>> as vice president. Palin will attend a fundraiser on Sunday
>>>>>>>>>>> night, then
>>>>>>>>>>> appear at multiple campaign stops on Monday in an effort to
>>>>>>>>>>> rally the GOP
>>>>>>>>>>> base to turn out to vote for Chambliss. The incumbent
>>>>>>>>>>> Republican is facing a
>>>>>>>>>>> strong challenge from Democrat Jim Martin. A runoff is
>>>>>>>>>>> scheduled for next
>>>>>>>>>>> Tuesday, after neither candidate received the 50 percent
>>>>>>>>>>> plus one vote
>>>>>>>>>>> needed to win on Election Day."
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Doug Mataconis at Donklephant considers the strategy:
>>>>>>>>>>> "The biggest challenge
>>>>>>>>>>> that both Chambliss and Martin face in the run-off election
>>>>>>>>>>> is getting their
>>>>>>>>>>> voters to turn out to the polls, since it's unlikely that
>>>>>>>>>>> voter turnout will
>>>>>>>>>>> be anywhere near the level it reached on November 4th. To
>>>>>>>>>>> the extent that
>>>>>>>>>>> she's able to motivate the base to get out and vote,
>>>>>>>>>>> Palin could prove
>>>>>>>>>>> useful to Chambliss."
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Dr. Steven Taylor at Poliblog thinks this may be more about
>>>>>>>>>>> Palin than
>>>>>>>>>>> Chambliss. "First, the move is further evidence of
>>>>>>>>>>> Palin's likely long-term
>>>>>>>>>>> ambitions," he writes. "Second, the move means that
>>>>>>>>>>> Chambliss thinks that
>>>>>>>>>>> Palin plays well with the GOP base in a red state like
>>>>>>>>>>> Georgia … Certainly
>>>>>>>>>>> if Chambliss wins, the trip will be perceived as evidence
>>>>>>>>>>> that Palin is a
>>>>>>>>>>> serious actor within the GOP going forward, at least within
>>>>>>>>>>> GOP circles."
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Palin or no Palin, Ed Morrissey at Hot Air is cautiously
>>>>>>>>>>> optimistic about
>>>>>>>>>>> the G.O.P. chances:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Voter enthusiasm for Martin has declined since the general
>>>>>>>>>>> election. Martin
>>>>>>>>>>> got his momentum from the massive numbers of Obama voters,
>>>>>>>>>>> most of whom
>>>>>>>>>>> appear less interested in the remaining down-ticket race.
>>>>>>>>>>> Chambliss may not
>>>>>>>>>>> have that problem, since John McCain didn't generate an
>>>>>>>>>>> enthusiastic
>>>>>>>>>>> response from the Republican base, meaning that
>>>>>>>>>>> Chambliss' voters will be
>>>>>>>>>>> motivated more by Chambliss himself. Republicans have the
>>>>>>>>>>> secondary
>>>>>>>>>>> motivation to deny Obama a filibuster-proof Senate by
>>>>>>>>>>> ensuring Chambliss'
>>>>>>>>>>> re-election.
>>>>>>>>>>> Either way, it looks like it will go down to the wire.
>>>>>>>>>>> Republicans around
>>>>>>>>>>> the country who want to keep at least one potential check
>>>>>>>>>>> on the excesses of
>>>>>>>>>>> single-party government had better start actively
>>>>>>>>>>> supporting the Chambliss
>>>>>>>>>>> effort."
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> We can't make this stuff up.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Happy Thanksgiving;
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Ben C.
>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>> View this message in context:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>> http://www.nabble.com/POLITICAL-Palin-Begins-2012-Campaign-tp20692288p20692288.html
>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Sent from the Rhodes 22 mailing list archive at Nabble.com.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> __________________________________________________
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>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> David Bradley
>>>>>> +1.206.234.3977
>>>>>> dwbrad at gmail.com
>>>>>>
>>>>>> __________________________________________________
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>>>>>>
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>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> David Bradley
>>>> +1.206.234.3977
>>>> dwbrad at gmail.com
>>>>
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