[Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
Brad Haslett
flybrad at gmail.com
Thu Sep 11 10:57:24 EDT 2008
Jim,
We could (well not me) end up in your neighborhood. I said when we
landed on the beach after Katrina we weren't going to chase hurricanes
and we haven't, but, another contractor called us this week and asked
if we could join him in Louisiana to help him finish-up quickly and be
in position for Ike. Brother Gary is mobilizing today with our
skid-steer and another contractor with his mini-excavator, a dump
trailer plus chain saws, generators, and fuel. Again, let's hope the
damage is minimal. Our target market is getting trees of off peoples
houses so they can get "blue tarped". Insurance companies pay
quickly. Dealing with FEMA is a different ballgame and one we're not
sophisticated enough to play.
Brad
On Thu, Sep 11, 2008 at 9:32 AM, Jim White <lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Aye Rummy.....
>
> <sigh> I am now a fleet commander.....3 boats!
>
> We bought a cheery Pearson 35 this spring when I was overcome with "big boat" fever, and just the wife and I delivered her from Kemah (up near Houston) down here, just in time for hurricane Dolly...all faired well...she's a full rigged magic carpet for the next big adventure, south to Isla Mujeres perhaps as early as late fall...
>
> I was going to deliver Olivia to a broker up there, but it looks like Ike is going to do them a number....it keeps shifting a little further up the coast.
>
> We're beginning to see the surge, and I have already adjusted the lines this morning...
>
> Good news is the rum looks like it might hold out (barring any impromteu parties)....
>
> Le Menagerie is on her trailer next to the house, and I have been restoring her bit by bit. COntemplating my next step with her. She's a good old boat for sure.
>
> jw
>
> --- On Thu, 9/11/08, R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>
> From: R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com>
> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
> To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
> Date: Thursday, September 11, 2008, 5:30 AM
>
> jw,
> Sounds like you have a plan. I'd come down and help you drink the rum, but
>
> the wife and I are off to Myrtle Beach for some R&R. Keep us informed as
> this
> thing progresses. Are you still a two boat owner or have you found a new home
> for the Rhodes?
>
> Rummy
>
>
> In a message dated 9/10/2008 6:04:01 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
> lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com writes:
>
> Rummy
> True....I am staying aboard to keep lines adjusted. Looks like the worst
> part will be a 2-4 foot storm surge here if the thing goes in as predicted
> around Port Lavaca. Have a locker full of good rums here (inluding a big
> unopened
> bottle of Mt. Gay)....You'd be proud!
> jw
>
> --- On Wed, 9/10/08, R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>
> From: R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com>
> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
> To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
> Date: Wednesday, September 10, 2008, 10:53 AM
>
> jw,
> Glad to hear you are getting ready. As long as you are on the west side of
> her, you should be okey dokey.
>
> Rummy
>
>
> In a message dated 9/10/2008 11:44:25 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
> lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com writes:
>
> Battening the hatches again. Right now the projected path is pretty far
> north (as always depending ona couple of factors).....
> jw
>
> --- On Tue, 9/9/08, Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> From: Brad Haslett <flybrad at gmail.com>
> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
> To: "The Rhodes 22 Email List" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> Date: Tuesday, September 9, 2008, 9:39 PM
>
> Info for Texas coastal Rhodies - Brad
>
> ----------------
>
> September 9th, 2008 6:07 pm
> Ike reaches the Gulf; could be a "worst-case" storm for Texas
>
>
> Hurricane Ike has emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, having survived its
> long passage over Cuba relatively intact, and it has a good chance of
> intensifying into a major hurricane — and aiming for a highly
> vulnerable part of the Texas coast. According to Dr. Jeff Masters,
> "There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to
> hit Texas in over 40 years."
>
> The standard caveats apply. Landfall in Texas is more than three days
> away. We don't know — we can't know — exactly where Ike will go,
> how
> strong it will get, or whether it will maintain its strength all the
> way to the coast. There are plenty of plausible scenarios which are
> not "worst case." The odds do not favor a calamity. They never do,
> at
> 72+ hours out. But Ike is a real threat.
>
> This new sense of worry is fueled partly by the track. As I mentioned
> earlier, the trend toward a landfall in more sparsely populated south
> Texas or northern Mexico has halted, and now the computer model tracks
> are inching north — and getting uncomfortably close to the heavily
> populated, highly vulnerable Houston/Galveston region. In Eric
> Berger's words, "if the models were to shift just 50 or so miles up
> the coast, a landfall at Freeport or just to the northeast would bring
> the strongest winds to Houston."
>
> The new official forecast track brings Ike ashore just north of Corpus
> Christi, and the National Hurricane Center's 5:00 PM discussion
> acknowledges that this may be too far south:
>
> THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE LATEST
> MODEL RUNS…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING LESS RIDGING TO
> THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS
> NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS. IKE
> IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
> RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
> ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE…BUT ALL OF THE BETTER
> DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
>
> Translation: if the models don't lurch back to the left, the NHC's
> forecast landfall point will move further away from Corpus Christi and
> closer to Freeport — the west edge of Houston/Galveston's
> "worst-case"
> landfall zone.
>
> The other reason for alarm is Ike's failure to fall apart during its
> on-again, off-again overland trek across Cuba, which has just ended.
> It took Ike almost 48 hours to traverse the island from end to end,
> and the storm's winds diminished from 135 mph a few hours before
> landfall, and 125 mph at landfall, to 75 mph now. But the storm's core
> remains structurally well put-together, which is the key to future
> strengthening.
>
> This is a crucial difference between Gustav and Ike. Although Gustav's
> passage over Cuba was quite brief — just a few hours — the effects of
> land interaction, combined with wind shear, were enough to
> significantly disrupt the storm's central core, delaying rapid
> intensification until it was too late for Gustav to re-intensify into
> a monster. By contrast, Ike's much lengthier passage of Cuba did not
> have the same effect. According to the National Hurricane Center's
> 5:00 PM discussion:
>
> IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
> PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA . . . IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT
> ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
> OF MEXICO.
>
> Dr. Masters summarizes things even more bluntly:
>
> All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous
> major hurricane . . . [S]atellite loops show that Ike has maintained a
> large, well-organized circulation during its passage of Cuba. The 4 pm
> EDT center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of
> 968 mb, which is characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane. Passage
> over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to keep Ike from
> intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
>
> The barometric pressure issue is particularly interesting. Ike's
> pressure just before landfall in Cuba was 945 mb, typical of a
> borderline Category 3/4 hurricane, which is exactly what Ike was at
> the time. During the passage of Cuba, the pressure rose "only" to
> 968
> mb, its current value, which is typical of a borderline Category 2/3
> hurricane — not the borderline tropical storm/Cat. 1 that Ike actually
> is. One reason for this, as I understand it, is that Ike has responded
> to land interaction by spreading out its wind field over a wider area,
> which (I believe) tends to cause a hurricane to be "weaker,"
> wind-speed-wise, than its central pressure would normally indicate.
>
> If I'm not mistaken — and here I must add the caveat that I'm not a
> meteorologist, I just play one on the Internet, so someone please
> correct me if I'm wrong — it would not be surprising to see Ike
> "tighten up" a bit over the Gulf, allowing its winds to ramp up to
> something more typically in line with the low barometric pressure. In
> other words, Ike might not actually have to "deepen" all that much
> to
> become a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.
>
> In any case, assuming Ike does become a major hurricane over the Gulf
> — which seems likely, given its core's organization, and given that
> both the Loop Current and a Loop Current Eddy stand between it and
> Texas — the big question is whether, and how much, it will then weaken
> before making landfall.
>
> Alan Sullivan (who, like me, is an amateur weather buff, not a
> meteorologist) foresees substantial weakening:
>
> [Ike's track will take it] into a zone of shear, cooler water, and
> interaction with an approaching cold front. Such a scenario could
> yield very heavy rains, but it would not be likely to put a major
> hurricane ashore. Ike would weaken.
>
> But Dr. Masters, who is a meteorologist (indeed, the co-founder of
> Weather Underground), is less confident of such an eventuality:
>
> The wind shear for Friday has changed, and we are expecting wind
> shear to remain around 15 knots, which is still low enough to allow
> intensification. There is much higher oceanic heat content off the
> Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus,
> it is more likely that Ike will be able to maintain major hurricane
> status as it approaches the coast. . . . Given the impressive
> appearance of Ike on satellite imagery, and the forecasts of high heat
> content and low shear along its path, I would be surprised if Ike hit
> as anything weaker than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.
> Here's my rough probability break-down for Ike's strength at
> landfall,
> I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:
>
> Category 1 or weaker: 20%
> Category 2: 30%
> Category 3: 30%
> Category 4 or 5: 20%
>
> A major-hurricane landfall anywhere along the middle Texas coast would
> be a very bad thing, as Dr. Masters points out with his explanation of
> why "Texas is highly vulnerable to storm surge." But nowhere is the
> threat greater than in Houston/Galveston, as this 2005 article by
> Berger explains in detail:
>
> Houston's perfect storm would feed on late summer's warm waters as
> it barreled northward across the Gulf of Mexico, slamming into the
> coast near Freeport.
>
> A landfall here would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant,
> where the waves move in the same direction as the storm, to overflow
> Galveston Bay. Within an hour or two, a storm surge, topping out at 20
> feet or more, would flood the homes of 600,000 people in Harris
> County. The surge also would block the natural drainage of flooded
> inland bayous and streams for a day or more.
>
> Coastal residents who ignored warnings to flee would have no hope
> of escape as waters swelled and winds roiled around their homes. Very
> likely, hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would die.
>
> Meanwhile, as the storm moved over western Harris County, its most
> dangerous winds, well in excess of 120 mph even inland, would lash the
> Interstate 45 corridor, including Clear Lake, the Texas Medical Center
> and downtown.
>
> Many older buildings could not withstand such winds.
>
> Anything not tied down, from trees to mobile homes to light poles,
> would become missiles, surreally tumbling and flying through the air,
> flattening small houses, shattering skyscraper windows and puncturing
> roofs.
>
> "Unfortunately, we're looking at massive devastation," said
> Roy
> Dodson, president of the engineering firm Dodson & Associates, which
> Harris County asked to model realistic "worst-case scenarios" for a
> major hurricane hitting the area.
>
> Dodson's firm modeled more than 100 storms of varying power, speed
> and landfall. It concluded that a large Category 4 or Category 5 . . .
> would cause as much as $40 billion to $50 billion in damage.
>
> Now, before anyone accuses me of "hype," please re-read the second
> paragraph of this post. The odds do not favor a calamity. But a
> worst-case scenario, or something close to it, is now a realistic
> possibility, albeit one that's far from certain. Texas residents need
> to watch this storm very closely, and not be lulled into a false sense
> of security by previous false alarms (Rita, Edouard, etc.). Ike could
> be the real deal. Maybe it won't be — but it could be.
>
> Berger, circa 2008, says of Ike: "The bottom line is that the Houston
> area could face a near worst-case scenario with Ike, although I'd
> still peg the chances of this happening at one-in-four, or less." He
> is, I believe, including any major hurricane landfall (Cat. 3 or
> above, not just Cat. 4 or 5) hitting between Freeport and Galeveston
> in his "near worst-case" category.
>
> Dr. Masters, for his part, spells out "a realistic worse-case scenario
> for Texas":
>
> There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane
> to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL
> models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models
> bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20%
> probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of
> coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A
> 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength
> and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50
> miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A
> 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15
> feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall
> receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of
> 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds
> at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile
> stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded
> at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit
> over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot
> storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.
>
> Bottom line: for folks in Texas, it is not time to panic, but it is
> time to prepare. Determine, if you don't know already, whether you're
> in an evacuation zone. The rule of thumb is "run from the water, hide
> from the wind," so unless you're in a storm surge zone, a flood
> plain,
> a poorly constructed home, or quite close to the shore, you can, and
> probably should, plan to hunker down rather than get the hell out. But
> don't listen to me — listen to your local authorities. And if you are
> in an evacuation zone, make the necessary preparations to leave
> tomorrow or Thursday, if and when the order comes.
>
> Again, listen to the local authorities on this: if they tell you to
> leave, you should leave. Ike is nothing to trifle with. As I've said,
> it may, for a variety of reasons, prove to be something less than a
> disaster — and if this happens, it will not mean the storm was
> "overhyped," it will just mean you got lucky. Be grateful, if so.
> But
> you should not play Russian roulette with this storm. Yes, previous
> hurricanes have made lucky turns. Yes, last-minute weakening often
> happens, and is possible here. But those fortuities are not
> guaranteed. Take Ike seriously.
>
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