[Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call

Thena Carville thenacarville at bellsouth.net
Thu Sep 11 11:50:13 EDT 2008


Where in LA?
Thena



-----Original Message-----
From: rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org
[mailto:rhodes22-list-bounces at rhodes22.org] On Behalf Of Brad Haslett
Sent: Thursday, September 11, 2008 9:57 AM
To: The Rhodes 22 Email List
Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call

Jim,

We could (well not me) end up in your neighborhood.  I said when we
landed on the beach after Katrina we weren't going to chase hurricanes
and we haven't, but, another contractor called us this week and asked
if we could join him in Louisiana to help him finish-up quickly and be
in position for Ike. Brother Gary is mobilizing today with our
skid-steer and another contractor with his mini-excavator, a dump
trailer plus chain saws, generators, and fuel. Again, let's hope the
damage is minimal.  Our target market is getting trees of off peoples
houses so they can get "blue tarped".  Insurance companies pay
quickly.  Dealing with FEMA is a different ballgame and one we're not
sophisticated enough to play.

Brad

On Thu, Sep 11, 2008 at 9:32 AM, Jim White <lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Aye Rummy.....
>
> <sigh> I am now a fleet commander.....3 boats!
>
> We bought a cheery Pearson 35 this spring when I was overcome with "big
boat" fever, and just the wife and I delivered her from Kemah (up near
Houston) down here, just in time for hurricane Dolly...all faired
well...she's a full rigged magic carpet for the next big adventure, south to
Isla Mujeres perhaps as early as late fall...
>
> I was going to deliver Olivia to a broker up there, but it looks like Ike
is going to do them a number....it keeps shifting a little further up the
coast.
>
> We're beginning to see the surge, and I have already adjusted the lines
this morning...
>
> Good news is the rum looks like it might hold out (barring any impromteu
parties)....
>
> Le Menagerie is on her trailer next to the house, and I have been
restoring her bit by bit. COntemplating my next step with her. She's a good
old boat for sure.
>
> jw
>
> --- On Thu, 9/11/08, R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>
> From: R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com>
> Subject: Re: [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
> To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
> Date: Thursday, September 11, 2008, 5:30 AM
>
> jw,
> Sounds like you have a plan. I'd come down and help you drink the rum, but
>
> the wife and I are off to Myrtle Beach for some R&R. Keep us informed as
> this
> thing progresses. Are you still a two boat owner or have you found a new
home
> for the Rhodes?
>
> Rummy
>
>
> In a message dated 9/10/2008 6:04:01 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
> lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com writes:
>
> Rummy
> True....I am staying aboard to keep lines adjusted. Looks like  the worst
> part will be a 2-4 foot storm surge here if the thing goes in as
predicted
> around Port Lavaca. Have a locker full of good rums here (inluding a  big
> unopened
> bottle of Mt. Gay)....You'd be proud!
> jw
>
> --- On Wed,  9/10/08, R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com> wrote:
>
> From:  R22RumRunner at aol.com <R22RumRunner at aol.com>
> Subject: Re:  [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up Call
> To: rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org
> Date:  Wednesday, September 10, 2008, 10:53 AM
>
> jw,
> Glad to hear you are  getting ready. As long as you are on the west side
of
> her, you  should be okey dokey.
>
> Rummy
>
>
> In a message dated 9/10/2008  11:44:25 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
> lemenagerie22 at yahoo.com  writes:
>
> Battening the hatches again. Right now the projected path is  pretty far
> north (as always depending ona couple of  factors).....
> jw
>
> --- On  Tue, 9/9/08, Brad Haslett  <flybrad at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> From: Brad  Haslett  <flybrad at gmail.com>
> Subject: [Rhodes22-list] IKE - Heads-Up   Call
> To: "The Rhodes 22 Email List"   <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org>
> Date: Tuesday, September 9, 2008,  9:39  PM
>
> Info for Texas coastal Rhodies -   Brad
>
> ----------------
>
> September 9th, 2008 6:07 pm
> Ike  reaches  the Gulf; could be a "worst-case" storm for  Texas
>
>
> Hurricane Ike has  emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, having  survived its
> long passage over Cuba  relatively intact, and it has a  good chance of
> intensifying into a major  hurricane - and aiming for a  highly
> vulnerable part of the Texas coast.  According to Dr. Jeff  Masters,
> "There is a significant chance that Ike will  be the worst  hurricane to
> hit Texas in over 40 years."
>
> The standard  caveats  apply. Landfall in Texas is more than three days
> away. We don't  know  - we can't know - exactly where Ike will go,
> how
> strong it will   get, or whether it will maintain its strength all the
> way to the  coast.  There are plenty of plausible scenarios which are
> not "worst  case." The  odds do not favor a calamity. They never do,
> at
> 72+  hours out. But Ike is a  real threat.
>
> This new sense of worry is  fueled partly by the track. As  I mentioned
> earlier, the trend toward  a landfall in more sparsely populated  south
> Texas or northern Mexico  has halted, and now the computer model  tracks
> are inching north - and  getting uncomfortably close to the  heavily
> populated, highly  vulnerable Houston/Galveston region. In  Eric
> Berger's words, "if the  models were to shift just 50 or so miles  up
> the coast, a landfall at  Freeport or just to the northeast would  bring
> the strongest winds to  Houston."
>
> The new official forecast  track brings Ike ashore just  north of Corpus
> Christi, and the National  Hurricane Center's 5:00 PM  discussion
> acknowledges that this may be too far  south:
>
> THERE  HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE  SPREAD OF THE LATEST
> MODEL  RUNS.WITH THE GFS.GFDL.AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING  LESS RIDGING TO
> THE  NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING THEIR  TRACKS
> NORTHWARD  TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS.  IKE
> IS NOW  EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE  SUBTROPICAL
> RIDGE  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL  FORECAST  IS
> ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.BUT ALL OF THE   BETTER
> DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE  RIGHT.
>
> Translation:  if the models don't lurch back to the left,  the NHC's
> forecast landfall  point will move further away from Corpus  Christi and
> closer to Freeport -  the west edge of  Houston/Galveston's
> "worst-case"
> landfall  zone.
>
> The other  reason for alarm is Ike's failure to fall apart during  its
> on-again,  off-again overland trek across Cuba, which has just  ended.
> It took  Ike almost 48 hours to traverse the island from end to  end,
> and the  storm's winds diminished from 135 mph a few hours  before
> landfall,  and 125 mph at landfall, to 75 mph now. But the storm's  core
> remains  structurally well put-together, which is the key to   future
> strengthening.
>
> This is a crucial difference between  Gustav  and Ike. Although Gustav's
> passage over Cuba was quite brief -  just a few  hours - the effects of
> land interaction, combined with  wind shear, were  enough to
> significantly disrupt the storm's central  core, delaying  rapid
> intensification until it was too late for Gustav  to re-intensify  into
> a monster. By contrast, Ike's much lengthier  passage of Cuba did  not
> have the same effect. According to the  National Hurricane  Center's
> 5:00 PM discussion:
>
> IKE MAINTAINED  A FAIRLY  WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
> PASSAGE OVER  WESTERN CUBA . . . IT  APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT
> ENOUGH TO TAKE  ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY  FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
> OF  MEXICO.
>
> Dr. Masters summarizes  things even more  bluntly:
>
> All indications are that Ike  will intensify into a very  dangerous
> major hurricane . . . [S]atellite  loops show that Ike has  maintained a
> large, well-organized circulation  during its passage of  Cuba. The 4 pm
> EDT center fix from the Hurricane  Hunters found a  central pressure of
> 968 mb, which is characteristic of a  Category 2  hurricane. Passage
> over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to  keep  Ike from
> intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of   Mexico.
>
> The barometric pressure issue is particularly  interesting.  Ike's
> pressure just before landfall in Cuba was 945 mb,  typical of  a
> borderline Category 3/4 hurricane, which is exactly what  Ike was  at
> the time. During the passage of Cuba, the pressure rose  "only" to
> 968
> mb, its current value, which is typical of a borderline  Category  2/3
> hurricane - not the borderline tropical storm/Cat. 1  that Ike  actually
> is. One reason for this, as I understand it, is  that Ike has  responded
> to land interaction by spreading out its wind  field over a wider  area,
> which (I believe) tends to cause a hurricane  to be  "weaker,"
> wind-speed-wise, than its central pressure would  normally  indicate.
>
> If I'm not mistaken - and here I must add the  caveat that I'm  not a
> meteorologist, I just play one on the Internet,  so someone  please
> correct me if I'm wrong - it would not be  surprising to see  Ike
> "tighten up" a bit over the Gulf, allowing its  winds to ramp up  to
> something more typically in line with the low  barometric pressure.  In
> other words, Ike might not actually have to  "deepen" all that much
> to
> become a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.
>
> In  any case, assuming Ike  does become a major hurricane over the Gulf
> -  which seems likely, given its  core's organization, and given  that
> both the Loop Current and a Loop  Current Eddy stand between it  and
> Texas - the big question is whether, and  how much, it will then  weaken
> before making landfall.
>
> Alan Sullivan  (who, like me, is  an amateur weather buff, not a
> meteorologist) foresees  substantial  weakening:
>
> [Ike's track will take it] into a  zone of shear,  cooler water, and
> interaction with an approaching cold  front. Such a  scenario could
> yield very heavy rains, but it would not be  likely to  put a major
> hurricane ashore. Ike would weaken.
>
> But Dr.   Masters, who is a meteorologist (indeed, the co-founder of
> Weather   Underground), is less confident of such an eventuality:
>
> The wind shear  for Friday has changed, and we are expecting wind
> shear to  remain  around 15 knots, which is still low enough to allow
> intensification.   There is much higher oceanic heat content off the
> Texas coast than  was  present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus,
> it is more  likely that  Ike will be able to maintain major hurricane
> status as it  approaches the  coast. . . . Given the impressive
> appearance of Ike on  satellite imagery,  and the forecasts of high heat
> content and low  shear along its path, I  would be surprised if Ike hit
> as anything  weaker than a Category 2  hurricane with 100 mph winds.
> Here's my  rough probability break-down for  Ike's strength at
> landfall,
> I  forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major  hurricane at  landfall:
>
> Category 1 or weaker:  20%
> Category 2:  30%
> Category 3:  30%
> Category 4 or 5: 20%
>
> A major-hurricane  landfall  anywhere along the middle Texas coast would
> be a very bad  thing, as Dr.  Masters points out with his explanation of
> why "Texas  is highly vulnerable  to storm surge." But nowhere is the
> threat  greater than in   Houston/Galveston, as this 2005 article  by
> Berger explains in  detail:
>
> Houston's perfect storm would  feed on late  summer's warm waters as
> it barreled northward across the  Gulf of Mexico,  slamming into the
> coast near Freeport.
>
> A  landfall here  would allow its powerful upper-right quadrant,
> where  the waves move in the  same direction as the storm, to  overflow
> Galveston Bay. Within an hour or  two, a storm surge, topping  out at 20
> feet or more, would flood the homes  of 600,000 people in  Harris
> County. The surge also would block the natural  drainage of  flooded
> inland bayous and streams for a day or  more.
>
> Coastal  residents who ignored warnings to flee  would have no hope
> of escape  as waters swelled and winds roiled around  their homes. Very
> likely,  hundreds, perhaps even thousands, would  die.
>
> Meanwhile, as the  storm moved over western Harris  County, its most
> dangerous winds,  well in excess of 120 mph even inland,  would lash the
> Interstate 45  corridor, including Clear Lake, the Texas  Medical Center
> and  downtown.
>
> Many older buildings  could not withstand such  winds.
>
> Anything not tied down,  from trees to mobile homes to  light poles,
> would become missiles, surreally  tumbling and flying  through the air,
> flattening small houses, shattering  skyscraper  windows and puncturing
> roofs.
>
> "Unfortunately, we're looking at  massive devastation," said
> Roy
> Dodson,  president of the  engineering firm Dodson & Associates, which
> Harris  County asked  to model realistic "worst-case scenarios" for a
> major  hurricane  hitting the area.
>
> Dodson's firm modeled more  than 100 storms of  varying power, speed
> and landfall. It concluded that a  large Category  4 or Category 5 . . .
> would cause as much as $40 billion to  $50  billion in damage.
>
> Now, before anyone accuses me of "hype,"  please  re-read the second
> paragraph of this post. The odds do not  favor a  calamity. But a
> worst-case scenario, or something close to  it, is now a  realistic
> possibility, albeit one that's far from  certain. Texas residents  need
> to watch this storm very closely, and  not be lulled into a false  sense
> of security by previous false alarms  (Rita, Edouard, etc.). Ike  could
> be the real deal. Maybe it won't be  - but it could be.
>
> Berger,  circa 2008, says of Ike: "The bottom  line is that the Houston
> area could  face a near worst-case scenario  with Ike, although I'd
> still peg the  chances of this happening at  one-in-four, or less." He
> is, I believe,  including any major  hurricane landfall (Cat. 3 or
> above, not just Cat. 4 or  5) hitting  between Freeport and Galeveston
> in his "near worst-case"   category.
>
> Dr. Masters, for his part, spells out "a realistic  worse-case  scenario
> for Texas":
>
> There is a significant  chance  that Ike will be the worst hurricane
> to hit Texas in over 40  years. The  latest run of the HWRF and GFDL
> models paint a realistic  worst-case  scenario for Texas. These models
> bring Ike to the coast as  a Category 4  hurricane (which I give a 20%
> probability of happening).  The HWRF predicts  a 170-mile stretch of
> coast will receive hurricane  force winds of 74 mph or  greater. A
> 100-mile stretch of coast will  receive winds of Category 3  strength
> and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane  force winds will push inland up to  50
> miles, along a 50-mile wide  region where the eyewall makes landfall.  A
> 100-mile stretch of Texas  coast will receive a storm surge of  10-15
> feet, with bays just to the  right of where the eye makes  landfall
> receiving a 20-25 foot storm  surge. This is what Hurricane Carla  of
> 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a  Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph  winds
> at landfall, and drove a 10  foot or higher storm surge to a  180-mile
> stretch of Texas coast. A  maximum storm surge of 22 feet was  recorded
> at Port Lavaca, Texas.  Despite the fact that the center of Carla  hit
> over 120 miles  southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a  15-foot
> storm surge into  the bays along the south side of the  city.
>
> Bottom line: for folks  in Texas, it is not time to panic, but it  is
> time to prepare.  Determine, if you don't know already, whether  you're
> in an evacuation  zone. The rule of thumb is "run from the water,  hide
> from the wind,"  so unless you're in a storm surge zone, a flood
> plain,
> a poorly  constructed home, or quite close to the shore, you can,  and
> probably  should, plan to hunker down rather than get the hell out.  But
> don't  listen to me - listen to your local authorities. And if you  are
> in an  evacuation zone, make the necessary preparations to  leave
> tomorrow or  Thursday, if and when the order comes.
>
> Again,  listen to the local  authorities on this: if they tell you to
> leave, you  should leave. Ike  is nothing to trifle with. As I've said,
> it may, for a  variety of  reasons, prove to be something less than a
> disaster - and if  this  happens, it will not mean the storm was
> "overhyped," it will just  mean  you got lucky. Be grateful, if so.
> But
> you should not play  Russian roulette  with this storm. Yes, previous
> hurricanes have made  lucky turns. Yes,  last-minute weakening often
> happens, and is  possible here. But those  fortuities are not
> guaranteed. Take  Ike   seriously.
>
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