[Rhodes22-list] Rhodes list//WIND

[Mary Lou Troy]

For the Upper Bay my favorite wind forecast is from Aberdeen Proving Grounds.
http://www.atc.army.mil/weather/

One thing to keep in mind with the wind forecasts 
is that they all use the same model data to make 
their predictions. They just interpret it 
differently. The Upper Chesapeake NWS forecast 
comes out of the Sterling VA office and is 
generally for the winds in the very middle of the 
Bay. If I really care about a forecast I look at 
the forecasts from Sterling and from the Mount 
Holly NJ office which doesn't actually do a 
forecast for the Bay but their wind forecasts for 
the Eastern Shore are often different than 
Sterlings forecasts for the western shore.

I find that wind forecasts aren't very good no 
matter who they come from. While I pay attention 
to any high wind forecasts, I usually rely on 
comparing the forecasts to realtime data like how 
many whitecaps I see out on the bay and current 
condition reports from Thomas Pt and Tolchester.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=tplm2
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8573364+Tolchester+Beach,+MD

Mary Lou
1991 R22 Fretless
Rock Hall, MD



At 05:39 PM 4/4/2009, you wrote:
>Tom, Some of you know my other sailing buddy 
>Tom.  He took the most popular weather sites and 
>combined them onto one site; with links taking 
>you directly into hourly, daily, and weekly 
>breakdowns.  I have it as a favorite on my work 
>computer but not on my wife's computer here at 
>home.  I'll try to remember to send it to 
>everyone on Monday. I think The Weather Channel 
>is far more accurate for wind conditions than 
>WeatherBug, and also consistently predicts less 
>wind.  I think TWC updates more frequently which 
>means the other weather conditions are probably 
>more accurate too.  Wind is far less predictable 
>than other weather, and a 5 mph difference is 
>significant on our light-wind boats.  Where you 
>and I sail, land masses cause more wind speed 
>fluctuations than inaccurate forecasts. I'd be 
>curious on the accuracy of extended 
>forecasts.  I'd guess that 12-hour forecasts are 
>more than 90% accurate, but after three days I 
>wonder if it drops to less than 50%.  I don't 
>trust meteorologists who tell me there's a 50% 
>chance of anything.  Give me a 49% or 51%, or 
>just be honest and tell me you don't know. Lee 
>Tom Hogarty wrote: > > Lee, > What is your most 
>reliable source for weather/wind forecast? > Tom 
>Hogarty > > > > Leland wrote: >> >> 
>Caesar, >> >> I have to honor some commitments 
>too.  Number one commitment: if the >> weather 
>is ideal, other commitments can wait.  Winds are 
>20-30 mph today >> with gusts to 40, so I guess 
>I'll be doing yard work all day.  Tomorrow >> 
>it's 7-8 mph and sunshine.  Right after Palm 
>Sunday services I plan on >> having another 
>spiritual experience underway. >> >> Lee >> 1986 
>Rhodes22  At Ease >> Kent Island, MD >> >> >> >> 
>Caesarsailor wrote: >>> >>> Hi Ellner, >>> 
>Â  >>> It may be that all Rhodes sailors are 
>busy getting their boats in ship >>> shape for 
>the season. >>> Â  >>> I started my motor 
>yesterday, but their is snow falling in my neck 
>of >>> the woods.  We had a sprinkling this 
>morning.  Sun is in the forcast for >>> the 
>weekend, and as things unfold, I have to honor 
>some commitments. >>> Â  >>> Are you planning to 
>sail over the weekend? >>> Â  >>> Caesar >>> >>> 
>--- On Fri, 4/3/09, Ellner 
><ellner at pressenter.com> wrote: >>> >>> >>> From: 
>Ellner <ellner at pressenter.com> >>> Subject: 
>[Rhodes22-list] Rhodes list >>> To: "The Rhodes 
>22 Email List" <rhodes22-list at rhodes22.org> >>> 
>Date: Friday, April 3, 2009, 6:32 PM >>> >>> >>> 
>I haven't seen any Rhodes 22 activity.  Is the 
>list up or is it my new >>> computer? >>> >>> 
>Thanks >>> Rod >>> 
>__________________________________________________  
> >>> To subscribe/unsubscribe or for help with 
>using the mailing list go to >>> 
>http://www.rhodes22.org/list >>> 
>__________________________________________________  
> >>> 
>__________________________________________________  
> >>> To subscribe/unsubscribe or for help with 
>using the mailing list go to >>> 
>http://www.rhodes22.org/list >>> 
>__________________________________________________  
> >>> >>> >> >> > > -- View this message in 
>context: 
>http://www.nabble.com/Rhodes-list-tp22879103p22888040.html 
>Sent from the Rhodes 22 mailing list archive at 
>Nabble.com. 
>__________________________________________________ 
>To subscribe/unsubscribe or for help with using 
>the mailing list go to 
>http://www.rhodes22.org/list 
>__________________________________________________
>No virus found in this incoming message.
>Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
>Version: 8.0.238 / Virus Database: 
>270.11.41/2040 - Release Date: 04/03/09 17:54:00