[Rhodes22-list] Political: "Winning" the war in Iraq

[DCLewis1 at aol.com]

JB,
 
The Surge takes us back to the manpower level that existed immediately  after 
the initial invasion - and that level of manpower was insufficient to  quell 
the unrest.  Since then the opposition has organized and  adapted, that will 
make it even tougher to quell any organized unrest using  Surge troop levels 
that were inadequate before.  Without a major x2  breakthrough it's hard to see 
why anyone would expect The Surge to work.
 
Prior to the Invasion a well regarded professional military officer, Gen  
Zinni, developed a contingency plan for the invasion and occupation of  Iraq.  
This was years before Wannabe-General Rumsfeld got involved.   The answer for 
invasion and occupation was 300K+ troops.  With The Surge  we're at roughly 160K 
troops.  Do the math, we're short beaucoup  troops.  The Surge didn't work 
before, there's no military reason  to think it will work now.  The Surge is not 
the military's idea, it's  driven from the White House.
 
So you can "take off the gloves" if you like, but you're at least 140,000  
troops short of what Gen Zinni projected as needed, and that's a fact.  You  
want me to be a supporter, stand on the street corner and cheer?  No  problem, 
we're still 140,000 troops short.  We are about 1/2 way to what  competent 
military authority is on record saying we need to do the job, no  amount of cheer 
leading is going to make up that shortfall.
 
In fairness, there is one wild card, the Iraq army may be able to assist -  
or it may not.  I believe the statistic is that on any given day 1/3 of  them 
don't show up for duty, so I am not encouraged.  But I could be wrong  about 
the Iraqi army and I hope I am.
 
The political situation is as bad, or worse, than it ever was.
 
But the core issue isn't my attitude, the core issue is the on-going  
military, political, and economic debacle on the ground in Iraq.  You  can cheer the 
effort all you want, but the aphorism is "If you do what  you always did, 
you'll get what you always got" - and we've done The Surge troop  level before, 
and it didn't work before, and it's gong to be harder to make it  work now.  
Maybe Gen Zinni and his staff really did know something.
 
As per my prior post, the only assured thing The Surge buys is time for Mr  
Bush et al to get outta town - I think it's a political stalling tactic.   
Again, the idea for The Surge was driven by the White House;  that's your clue 
that there's a political dimension to it.
 
Dave



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